Needham cuts Open Lending stock target to $2, keeps Buy rating

Published 02/04/2025, 12:08
Needham cuts Open Lending stock target to $2, keeps Buy rating

On Wednesday, Needham analysts revised their price target for Open Lending (NASDAQ:LPRO) shares, reducing it significantly to $2.00 from the previous target of $7.00. The stock, currently trading at $1.17 and near its 52-week low of $1.15, has seen its value decline by over 80% year-to-date. Despite the reduction, they maintained a Buy rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock’s RSI suggests oversold conditions, and analysts expect net income growth this year. InvestingPro offers 14 additional investment tips for LPRO. This adjustment follows Open Lending’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings, primarily due to a considerable negative fair value adjustment in the company’s profit share revenue stream.

The company also recorded a $47.6 million excess profit share receipts liability on its balance sheet. Furthermore, there was a notable change in leadership, with Jessica Buss, the Chairman of the Board, assuming the role of CEO effective immediately. Open Lending did not provide any guidance for first-quarter revenue or EBITDA, which added to the uncertainty surrounding the company’s near-term outlook.

Despite these challenges, Needham’s analysis pointed to Open Lending’s financial position, noting that the company’s net cash represents over 40% of its market capitalization. The company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 5.84, indicating its liquid assets well exceed short-term obligations. Additionally, the firm highlighted that the stock is currently trading at just 1.8 times its tangible book value, which InvestingPro data confirms with a Price/Book ratio of 1.79. These factors contribute to Needham’s continued endorsement of the stock with a Buy rating.

The analyst from Needham stated, "While the quarter/outlook were definitely disappointing and lack near-term clarity, LPRO now has over 40% of its market cap in net cash and the shares trade at just 1.8x tangible book value." The analyst added, "While LPRO has a long way back to rebuild credibility with investors, we believe there is value still after the dust settles."

The price target reduction reflects the immediate impact of the fourth-quarter performance and the current state of the company. Open Lending’s new leadership and financial standing may play a critical role in its efforts to regain investor trust and stabilize its market position following the recent challenges. For deeper insights into LPRO’s valuation and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access a comprehensive Pro Research Report, offering expert analysis and key metrics among 1,400+ top US stocks.

In other recent news, Open Lending reported a significant earnings miss for Q4 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) of -$1.21, falling short of the forecasted $0.02. Revenue also plummeted to a negative $56.9 billion, a stark contrast to the expected $24.02 million. Following these results, DA Davidson cut its price target for Open Lending to $4, maintaining a Buy rating, while Jefferies lowered its target to $3 with a Hold rating. The financial shortfall was largely due to an $81 million reversal in profit-sharing fee revenue, attributed to underperformance in loan vintages from 2021 to 2024.

Despite these challenges, Open Lending issued 26,000 certificates of insurance in Q4, surpassing expectations, and projected further growth in the first quarter of 2025. The company also appointed Jessica Buss as the new CEO, signaling a strategic shift aimed at navigating current economic challenges and improving financial performance. Analysts from DA Davidson and Jefferies have expressed cautious optimism, highlighting the company’s potential for stabilization under new leadership. As Open Lending adapts its strategies, the focus will be on enhancing profitability and reducing volatility in profit share revenue.

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