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Investing.com -- Turkey’s consumer price index (CPI) for January 2025 saw a significant monthly increase, recording a 5.0% rise, which was primarily attributed to one-off factors.
Despite this surge, Capital Economics anticipates a softer CPI figure for February and maintains its projection for the central bank to implement a substantial 250 basis points rate cut to 42.50% at the March meeting.
The monthly inflation rate exceeded both Capital Economics’ and the consensus forecast, which slightly exceeded 4%, and marked a considerable increase from December’s 1.0% rate.
The annual inflation rate declined from 44.4% to 42.1%, but the central bank’s focus remains on the month-on-month figures.
The minimum wage increase and adjustments in taxes and regulated prices at the year’s start were the main contributors to the inflation rise. Services inflation saw a particularly steep increase, hitting 10.3% month-on-month, up from December’s 1.0%.
Despite the noticeable uptick in prices, Capital Economics does not believe that the January data will disrupt the central bank’s current easing cycle.
The central bank had anticipated an inflation increase, as indicated in the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting statement, and had already taken it into consideration to some extent. The factors driving the inflation spike in the last month are seen as temporary.
The upcoming February CPI data, which will be available before the next MPC meeting, is crucial for the central bank’s decision-making.
Capital Economics suggests that if the underlying inflation pressures are indeed easing as they expect, the February figures should reflect a significant decline in inflation. This would potentially support the central bank’s option to proceed with another aggressive rate cut.
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