Escalated U.S.-China tariffs a "lose-lose scenario" prior to trade talks - Citi

Published 07/05/2025, 11:22
© Reuters

Investing.com - Heightened tariffs between the U.S. and China are a "lose-lose scenario" for both countries, making de-escalation a "shared incentive" ahead of upcoming trade discussions, according to analysts at Citi.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng -- considered to be Beijing’s main representative for economic and trade matters -- this week, raising hopes for a possible easing in a tariff-driven spat between the world’s two largest economies.

But, in a note to clients, the Citi analysts said they see "only a narrow path ahead" for an easing in the conflict. Settling disagreements over recently escalated tit-for-tat tariffs and levies related to China’s alleged role in the flow of the illegal drug fentanyl into the U.S. would be "easy", the brokerage argued.

What could prove to be more difficult would be removing Trump’s so-called "reciprocal" 34% tariff on China, which he announced at a White House event in early April, the analysts said.

"From a macro perspective, the total tariff rate could still stay prohibitively high in the next 6-12 months," they wrote. "However, with more exemptions, trade could flow -- especially in less price-sensitive sectors."

In a statement, Bessent, who has emerged as one of the Trump administration’s key trade negotiators, said he looked forward to "productive talks as we work towards rebalancing the international economic system towards better serving the interest of the United States".

Citing a Chinese statement, Reuters reported that China has agreed to meet with Bessent and chief U.S. trade negotiator Jamieson Greer in Switzerland this weekend. While Beijing said it plans to "re-engage" with the U.S., it warned that it will "never agree" to a deal if Trump officials attempt "to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail".

China was left out of Trump’s recent postponement of punishing "reciprocal" tariffs on a host of countries, and currently faces sweeping U.S. levies of at least 145%.

Beijing, who has imposed its own retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports, has become a central target of Trump’s tariff agenda, with the president arguing that China is a "candidate for the ’chief-ripper-offer’ on trade". China has responded with its own heated rhetoric, ratcheting up tensions with Washington.

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