U.S. stock futures slip lower; Cook’s firing increases Fed independence worries
Investing.com - The Federal Reserve could wait longer than investors currently anticipate to start cutting interest rates, although those reductions could be faster than expected once the easing cycle begins, according to analysts at BofA.
Recently solid employment figures as well as indications of resilient consumer spending activity have led the market to stick to their estimates for over three interest rate slashes by the Fed this year, with the first seen coming in June.
Still, policymakers face a relatively muddled economic picture. U.S. gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter and inflation expectations have increased, exacerbating concerns that President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff agenda could eventually lead to a broader economic downturn.
In a note to clients, the BofA analysts led by Claudio Irigoyen said that they project a "slowdown but not a recession" for the economy, adding that the Fed will likely wait to cut rates until "having a clearer picture of inflation dynamics".
"Inflation is set to rise, and uncertainty about inflation, growth, and labor market dynamics remains very high. In turn, this increases the option value of waiting for the Fed," the BofA analysts wrote.
Given the Fed’s dual mandate for controlling price pressures and maintaining labor market stability, the "optimal policy response" by the Fed would be to postpone reductions in favor of "prioritizing inflation risks and anchoring its credibility unless activity data falls off a cliff", the analysts said.
On Wednesday, the central is broadly expected to leave interest rates unchanged, placing the spotlight on any indications it may give about policy decisions later this year.
The Fed has previously signaled that it will take a "wait-and-see" approach to any future changes to borrowing costs, citing uncertainty around the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
With the next batch of rate forecasts from policymakers not due out until June, the attention will likely be squarely on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference for any clues.
Extra focus may also be placed on commentary from Powell around the independence of the Fed. Trump has indicated his displeasure with Powell for not pushing harder to bring down interest rates, although he has said he has no plans to oust the Fed leader.