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Investing.com-- An index of uncertainty over trade policy hit a record high this week, indicating heightened caution in markets ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump unveiling more trade tariffs this week.
The Trade Policy Uncertainty index hit a record high in March, the index’s website showed, as trade uncertainty ramped up amid Trump’s threats and flip-flopping on trade tariffs.
The index was also substantially higher than peaks seen during Trump’s first term of 2016 to 2020, where he sparked a long drawn-out trade war with China before reaching a trade deal in 2019.
The index was developed by Federal Reserve officials Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Andrea Prestipino and Andrea Raffo, and UCLA PHD student Patrick Molligo, and uses automated text searches of the electronic archives of seven major U.S. newspapers to gauge the monthly frequency of articles discussing trade policy uncertainty.
Uncertainty over trade hit a fever pitch in recent weeks amid conflicting reports over just what Trump’s upcoming tariffs will entail. Trump has vowed to impose reciprocal trade tariffs against major economies with high trade surpluses with the U.S.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on automobiles will also take effect from April 2, with the U.S. President also threatening to impose tariffs on other key sectors such as commodity imports, chips, and pharmaceuticals.
Trump’s 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico will take full effect from April 2, likely inviting more retaliatory measures from the two and sparking a global trade war.
Trump is set to announce his new tariffs at 15:00 ET (19:00 GMT) on April 2, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a recent interview.