Gold prices near 3-week lows as stronger dollar, trade progress weigh
Investing.com -- U.S. equities may have found a short-term floor following the White House’s pause on higher reciprocal tariffs, but Barclays (LON:BARC) warns that further gains could be limited by the “erratic policy” under President Donald Trump.
“The Trump put may provide a floor to equities. But erratic policy/governance likely cap the upside,” Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said in a note.
Although the recent move to delay tariff hikes helped ease investor fears, Barclays notes it does not resolve the underlying concerns.
“By no means does it mark the end of the story,” the strategists stressed, adding that “protracted uncertainty about the ultimate level and scope of tariffs isn't good for business/earnings.”
Barclays recently lowered its year-end target for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to 490, reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade tensions.
The bank said that providing a precise forecast is challenging amid what it described as an “unprecedented and unpredictable” environment.
It outlined a wide range of potential outcomes, with a downside to around 390 in the event of a recession and an upside to 550 if the trade war de-escalates swiftly enough to avoid broader economic damage.
While the recent market downturn appears to have prompted some capitulation and driven equities to oversold levels, the strategists believe the recovery is likely limited.
“Pre-Liberation day market levels are also a cap, given that questionable Trump governance and erratic policies should warrant higher risk premia, in our view, and much uncertainty remains about the trade war endgame,” they wrote.
Despite a softer-than-expected March CPI report, Barclays cautions that the March FOMC minutes reinforced the narrative that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to lower interest rates as policymakers prefer to wait for more clarity on the economic outlook.
At the same time, the combination of rising U.S. yields and a weakening dollar is seen as particularly troubling for market stability, which the strategists view as “a bad cocktail, reminiscent of the U.K. budget crisis of 2022.”
“Given how central the treasury market is to financial stability, it was no surprise this week to see investors' focus shifting to credit risk,” they said.
With macroeconomic uncertainty unlikely to dissipate in the near term, the strategists expect balance sheet quality to play a more important role in stock selection.