Stock market today: S&P 500 shrugs off hawkish Fed minutes to snap losing streak
Investing.com -- The Nasdaq Composite steadied on Friday as buyers returned to major technology names a day after the sector dragged Wall Street to its sharpest decline in more than a month.
The Nasdaq edged up 0.13% to 22,900.59, ending a three-session slide. The S&P 500 was little changed at 6,734.11, slipping 0.05%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65% to 47,147.48.
All three had clawed back steep early losses, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down as much as 1.9% and 1.4% intraday and the Dow off nearly 600 points.
Thursday’s selloff had marked the worst day for the major indexes since early October. The Dow sank roughly 800 points, erasing the prior day’s advance above 48,000. The Nasdaq tumbled more than 2% as heavyweight tech stocks slumped.
For the week, the Nasdaq slipped 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Dow eked out modest gains of 0.1% and 0.3%.
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Attention now turns to a light earnings slate, including results from Nvidia, and a wave of delayed government data following the end of the record federal shutdown.
With the government reopened, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it will publish the long-overdue September jobs report on Thursday. A separate release on inflation-adjusted earnings is scheduled for Nov. 21.
Labor data carry added weight as concerns grow around a cooling U.S. job market. Federal Reserve officials, operating without fresh numbers for weeks, have been split on whether sticky inflation or weakening employment poses the bigger threat.
“The main event for this week will be Thursday’s employment report for September,” Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note.
“We expect headline (+75k forecast vs. +22k previously) and private (+75k vs. +38k) payrolls to rebound in September, which should keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%,” they added.
The most recent labor data, released on Sept. 5, showed 22,000 jobs added in August and unemployment rising to 4.3%.
The September payrolls report was originally slated for Oct. 3, meaning next week’s release will still leave a gap in understanding current labor conditions.
Other agencies are also preparing to clear backlogs. The Census Bureau plans to issue delayed figures on construction spending, trade and inventories early next week, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis has yet to set a new date for its postponed first estimate of third-quarter GDP.
Additional catch-up reports on retail sales, wholesale prices and trade flows could follow soon.
Volatile market braces for Nvidia earnings
Volatility in technology shares could stay elevated this week as investors brace for quarterly results from Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company and a central force behind Wall Street’s artificial intelligence trade.
Nvidia’s rapid growth in AI chips has made it a defining barometer for the theme that has powered a broad sweep of tech stocks, along with companies tied to the massive buildout needed to support AI adoption.
The stock has climbed roughly 1,000% since the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022, including a gain of more than 40% this year that propelled it past the $5 trillion valuation mark last month.
That scale gives Nvidia outsized influence over benchmark indexes. The shares account for about 8% of the S&P 500 and nearly 10% of the Nasdaq 100, making its post-earnings reaction a potential driver of market direction.
Wall Street expects another robust quarter. Analysts forecast fiscal third-quarter earnings per share rising 53.8% from a year earlier, with revenue projected at $54.8 billion, according to LSEG.
Beyond Nvidia, investors will also parse results from major U.S. retailers in the coming days, including Walmart and Home Depot, for further signals on consumer spending and the health of the broader market.
What analysts are saying about U.S. stocks
Morgan Stanley: "We raise our S&P 500 price target to 7,800 driven by strong earnings growth. Valuation stays supported as the rolling recovery leads to broadening in leadership. We upgrade small caps to Overweight (OW) relative to large caps. At the sector level, we upgrade Consumer Discretionary Goods and Healthcare to OW."
JPMorgan: "Encouragingly, earnings delivery has continued to broaden. While Mag7 earnings growth stayed robust at +23% y/y, the spread between Mag7 and S&P 500 excluding Mag7 has narrowed further, with the remaining stocks recording 12% y/y EPS growth, the highest rate since 2022."
RBC Capital Markets: "If the current period of weakness persists and finally turns into the garden variety pullback we’ve been worried about, our Four Tiers of Fear framework reminds us that a 5-10% drawdown from the recent high in the S&P 500 would take the index into the 6,200-6,550 range."
"We think a pullback in the 5-10% range in the balance of 2025 is reasonable to expect. If recession fears pick up, a tier 2 or tier 3 decline would be reasonable to anticipate. We think stocks priced in a growth scare in April, but not a recession."