GLJ explores what’s priced in ahead of Tesla’s Q1 delivery report tomorrow

Published 31/03/2025, 17:18
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Investing.com -- GLJ Research told investors in a note Monday that it expects Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to report Q1 2025 deliveries of 352,700 vehicles, which would be 9.6% below the current consensus estimate of 390,300 and a decline from the 386,800 vehicles delivered in Q1 2024.

“We have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K,” GLJ Research wrote. 

However, after updating estimates, the firm now sees deliveries coming in lower, suggesting a potential miss relative to market expectations.

Looking beyond Q1, GLJ Research also believes consensus estimates for Tesla’s full-year 2025 deliveries are too high. 

The firm forecasts 2025 deliveries at 1.628 million vehicles, a 13% shortfall compared to the current consensus of 1.872 million and last year’s total of 1.872 million vehicles. 

If realized, this would mark two consecutive years of negative year-over-year growth for Tesla, which “trades at 96.2x its 2025E non-GAAP EPS estimate, vs. 20.7x for the S&P 500.”

The firm’s note suggests that investors will closely watch Tesla’s regional performance across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, where demand trends could shape the stock’s trajectory. 

However, with expectations already elevated, GLJ Research questions whether Tesla’s slowing growth is adequately “priced in” ahead of tomorrow’s delivery report.

 

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