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GLOBAL MARKETS-Bonds hold gains after Fed's surprise rate cut

Published 04/03/2020, 13:06
Updated 04/03/2020, 13:09
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Bonds hold gains after Fed's surprise rate cut
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* U.S. Treasury yields near record lows

* Euro STOXX 600 gains 1.5%

* S&P 500 futures up 1.8% as Biden rallies in primaries

* Dollar slides vs Asian currencies

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

(Updates prices throughout, adds comment)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Bonds held onto gains on

Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprise 50 basis

point interest rate cut, part of global efforts to contain

economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak.

The Fed's first off-schedule move since the 2008 financial

crisis came with comments highlighting both the scale of the

challenge and the limits of monetary policy. In response, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield

US10YT=RR , which falls when prices rise, held below 1% - not

far over the overnight low of 0.9060%. The yield has fallen for

ten straight days, its longest slide in at least a generation.

Euro zone bond yields also held near record lows on

Wednesday, with Germany's benchmark 10-year Bund yield

DE10YT=RR around -0.64%, near six-month lows set on Monday.

Some saw the Fed's extraordinary move as a decision to move

hard and early because it expected further economic damage from

the spread of the coronavirus.

"They have signalled willingness to take further action,

which is why we are seeing a further rally in bonds," said Tim

Drayson, head of economics at Legal & General Investment

management. "Some argue that monetary policy can't fight the

supply shock - but it will support demand and confidence."

With safe-haven currencies in demand, the dollar clawed back

some ground from near five-month lows versus the yen JPY=EBS

and fell to its lowest against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS in

almost two years. It was flat against a basket of six major

currencies =USD .

Global stock markets edged up as investors weighed prospects

for further central bank support, while a strong performance by

Joe Biden in the Democratic Party primaries in the United States

also emboldened bets.

The Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX gained 1.5%, on course for a

third straight days of gains. Markets in Frankfurt .GDAXI ,

London .FTSE and Paris .FCHI gained a similar amount.

"After the action from the Fed the market is very, very

watchful now for potential moves from other central banks," said

Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC.

On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures ESc1 climbed 1.8% on

Biden's showing, after falling overnight despite the Fed's rate

Biden, a moderate seen as less likely to raise taxes and

impose new financial regulations, won primaries in nine states.

That set up a one-on-one battle for the Democratic presidential

nomination with democratic socialist Bernie Sanders.

The European moves built on gains in Asia, where MSCI's

broadest index of shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose

0.3%.

Korean stocks .KS11 gained 2% on a $9.8 billion government

stimulus package to mitigate the coronavirus impact.

The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares in 49 countries, gained 0.2%. It is still down around 10%

falling a brutal sell-off last week as fears over economic

damage from the coronavirus gripped markets.

CUTS NOT ENOUGH?

The Fed's surprise move followed a shift in money market

pricing late last week. 0#FF: Futures swung rapidly to

anticipate such a cut at the Fed's March meeting. FEDWATCH

Now, they imply another 50 basis points of easing by July,

even though investors and the Fed itself raised doubts that

easing will help deal with a public health crisis.

"If you're in China and you can direct liquidity exactly

where you need to, and have rate cuts where you want them to be,

monetary policy is very effective," said Sebastien Galy, senior

macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management.

"In the West, in a democracy, monetary policy is less

effective - you need to incentivise banks to do what is in to

the benefit of the whole."

Investors were also watching the Bank of England for signs

it would follow the Fed. Money markets have moved to fully price

in a BoE rate cut of 25 basis points at its next meeting, up

from a chance of 80% before the Fed move.

Sterling dipped 0.1% against the U.S. dollar GBP=D3 , and

slipped 0.3% against the euro before clawing back some ground

EURGBP=D3 .

The coronavirus has killed more than 3,000 people, about

3.4% of those infected - far above seasonal flu's fatality rate

of under 1%. It continues to spread beyond China, with Italy

reporting a jump in deaths to 79 and South Korea reporting more

than 500 new cases on Wednesday.

"The question here is whether a conventional interest rate

response is sufficient," said Sameer Goel, chief strategist,

Asia macro, at Deutsche Bank in Singapore.

Coronavirus hits financial markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2TI8YnE

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