GLOBAL MARKETS-Record high stocks pause to gauge China-U.S. trade outlook, company earnings

Published 15/01/2020, 12:25
© Reuters.
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* European shares open lower

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* Tariffs to stay until there is 'Phase 2' agreement:

Mnuchin

* U.S.-China 'Phase 1' trade deal to be signed later on

Wednesday

* Bond yields inch lower; U.S. earnings in focus

(Updates prices, adds charts, detail)

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - World stocks eased off record

highs on Wednesday and U.S. and German bond yields slipped, as

euphoria over a U.S.-China trade deal was tempered by U.S.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying tariffs on Chinese

goods would remain in place for now.

The 18-month trade spat should enter a quieter phase as U.S.

President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He sign an

initial agreement that would boost Chinese purchases of U.S.

manufactured and agricultural goods, energy and services.

Dubbed the Phase 1 deal, it may soothe markets which have

been on edge as the conflict between the world's two largest

economies hit hundreds of billions of dollars in goods, uprooted

supply chains and slowed economic growth.

But share prices have pulled back from recent highs, with

Wall Street closing weaker on Tuesday, MSCI's index of Asian

shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS retreating from 19-month

peaks and Japan's benchmark Nikkei .N225 likewise falling

0.5%, off a four-week high.

MSCI's all-country equity index edged into the red after two

days of gains .MIWD00000PUS while all three New York indexes

are set to open weaker, futures suggested ESc1 NQc1 YMc1

The pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX slipped 0.1%.

The retreat was triggered by Mnuchin's comments that U.S.

tariffs on Chinese goods would stay until the completion of a

second phase of a U.S.-China trade agreement. Their eventual

removal hinged on Beijing's compliance with the Phase 1 accord,

Bloomberg reported, citing sources. The news did not entirely surprise markets, however, and

many attributed the pullback to profit-taking off the recent

rally than to any turn in underlying sentiment.

"The Phase 1 deal had pretty much been priced in so

(Mnuchin's) comments took some steam out of the market last

night and that's feeding through into today," said Justin

Onuekwusi, a portfolio manager at Legal & General Investment

Management.

The jittery mood gave a mild boost to safe-haven assets such

as gold, with the precious metal ticking up 0.3% after two days

of losses XAU= . The Japanese yen and high-grade bonds also

firmed slightly, though the yen was just a whisker off

7-1/2-month lows of 110.22 JPY=D3 .

U.S. Treasury yields ticked down, with the benchmark 10-year

note yield falling more than 2 basis points to 1.7930%

US10YT=RR , hurt also by Tuesday's data showing consumer prices

undershooting expectations in December, which could allow

interest rates to stay unchanged this year.

German 10-year yields fell 3.5 bps, extending their fall

from two-week highs DE10YT=RR after data showed the German

economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, the weakest expansion rate since

2013 and a marked cooling from the previous year

Markets are also weighing the potential impact of the U.S.

government nearing publication of a rule that would expand its

powers to block shipments to China's Huawei, as it seeks to

squeeze the blacklisted firm. "I think the Trump administration will continue to put

pressure on China in this way or some other, even after signing

a Phase 1 deal," Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda

Life Insurance said.

Markets may also focus more on company earnings -- Refinitiv

analysis suggests S&P 500 companies' earnings-per-share fell

0.6% in the last 2019 quarter-- the second straight quarterly

decline.

But expectations from the financial sector are higher,

especially after JPMorgan posted record profits and Citi beat

estimates on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs, Bank of

America, BlackRock are among those reporting results later on

Wednesday.

"The market will see trade escalation taken off the table

but it will start to focus on earnings. We saw huge multiple

expansions in 2019 and that won't happen again until we see

earnings coming through," Onuekwusi said.

On currency markets, the trade-reliant Australian dollar

slipped 0.3% against the greenback while the euro was broadly

flat AUD=D3 EUR=EBS .

The offshore yuan CNH= weakened slightly, a day after

rising to its strongest level in six months of 6.865.

The British pound, down almost 2% this month GBP=D3 ,

slipped further as below-forecast inflation data prompted money

markets to ramp up expectations of an interest rate cut as soon

as this month.

A quarter-point cut is now fully priced by end-2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2NmDt00

BOEWATCH

S&P 500 earnings by quarter since 2015 png https://tmsnrt.rs/2FxwJrx

Top U.S. exports to China, 2017 png https://tmsnrt.rs/2tYpR43

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