BofA’s Hartnett says concentrated U.S. stock returns are likely to persist
Investing.com -- Julius Baer (SIX:BAER) saw its stock rating downgraded by Citi to Neutral from Buy, as analysts caution that the bank’s ongoing cultural transformation could take longer to materialize than initially expected.
While the firm remains constructive on the medium-term outlook, near-term concerns over restructuring and risk framework adjustments weighed on its decision.
Following meetings with Julius Baer’s new CEO Stefan Bollinger and CFO Evie Kostakis, Citi noted that cost inflation was lower than feared and that risk framework changes should keep attrition manageable.
However, analysts also flagged the scale of the expected cultural shift, which is “larger than we had anticipated.” The restructuring efforts and changes to the relationship manager (RM) model could introduce uncertainty, leading Citi to question whether potential future attrition might act as a drag on the business.
The Wall Street firm pointed out that Julius Baer has several positive attributes, including “significant surplus capital optionality, gearing to recovery, and upside to interest margins over time (albeit reliant on falling rates).”
Still, execution risk remains a concern, with analysts cautioning that shifting the culture of a people-driven business is a complex process that could impact investor confidence.
Despite the rating downgrade, Citi still expects Julius Baer to deliver “solid top-line growth and high-single/low-double digit earnings growth over the medium term.”
But near-term earnings estimates were cut, with lower growth and margin expectations leading to a target price reduction to CHF 60 from CHF 67. With expected total return below 15% and valuation close to historical two-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) averages, Citi found limited upside to justify maintaining a Buy rating.
The firm also raised concerns about potential hiring slowdowns, as prospective RMs might delay joining amid ongoing restructuring.
“All this could make Baer shares even more of a ‘show-me’ story,” Citi warned. Furthermore, while management reiterated its 80bps illustrative margin for 2025 profitability, Citi sees downside risks to interest margins given the ongoing shift towards CHF-based lending and client perimeter adjustments.