* MSCI world equity index up 0.3% to highest since Feb '18
* China's yuan reached 12-week high
* U.S.-China edge closer to 'phase one' deal
* Recession fears recede as jobs data show U.S. economic
strength
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
(Updates prices throughout)
By Tom Wilson
LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - World shares touched a 21-month
high on Monday on signs that the United States and China could
soon put an end to a damaging trade war as well as indications
that the world may yet dodge an economic recession.
Beijing and Washington spoke on Friday of progress in talks
aimed at settling a trade dispute that has bruised the global
economy and repeatedly shaken financial markets, with U.S.
officials saying a deal could be signed this month. The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks
shares in 47 countries, climbed 0.3% to its highest since
February 2018, with major European indexes following Asia
upwards.
European stocks followed Asian indexes upwards, with the
broad Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX gaining 0.9%. Frankfurt's main
index .GDAXI , seen as highly exposed to the trade war,
climbing 1.2% to reach its highest since June last year.
Wall Street futures ESc1 gained 0.5%.
The optimistic tone reached currency markets, too, with the
Chinese yuan CNH=EBS rising to a 12-week high versus the
dollar.
Investors expect the world's two biggest economies to reach
a "phase one" trade deal, with U.S. President Donald Trump
hoping to sign an agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The key date in focus is Dec. 15, when new U.S. tariffs on
Chinese imports from toys to electronics are due to kick in.
Both sides have an interest in averting those tariffs, with
Trump in particular seen as aiming to reap political benefits
from sealing a deal ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
"It will be a convenient decision for President Trump to let
phase one be signed," said Alessia Berardi, senior economist at
Amundi. "This is a kind of low-hanging fruit to collect and is
very much possible."
Still, Berardi warned that intellectual property would be a
thornier issue and could yet complicate talks next year.
Earlier, the positive mood on trade had sent Asian stocks
surging, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS up 1.2%.
Indexes in Hong Kong .HSI and Seoul .KS11 gained 1.7%
and 1.4% respectively, while mainland Chinese blue chips
.CSI300 added 0.7%.
ECONOMIC RESILIENCE?
Also emboldening investors was a sense that a global
recession, predicted by many economists and investors to hit
next year, was a diminishing risk.
On Friday, a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report added to
signs of economic resilience. Job growth slowed less than
expected in October, with hiring in the two months before that
better than previously estimated. "The macro environment is still resilient, stabilised and
maybe even showing signs of improvement - and that is a net
positive for risky assets," said Olivier Marciot, senior
portfolio manager at Unigestion.
Bond markets, too, suggested that the United States may have
dodged a slowdown. The three-month to 10-year Treasury yield
curve - a key warning sign of U.S. recession when inverted - is
rising again after staying in negative territory for long
periods since May.
And on the earnings front, U.S. results are for the third
straight quarter defying expectations for an annual aggregate
contraction.
"Expectations were low going into earnings, and things are
getting better than expected," Marciot said.
WAITING FOR LAGARDE
As the Chinese yuan strengthened, the euro trod water.
Investors were waiting for Christine Lagarde's first speech as
European Central Bank president.
Markets are assuming that Lagarde, due to talk at 1800 GMT,
will stick with the easy policy script of her predecessor, Mario
Draghi.
Lagarde has struck a balanced tone in recent comments,
saying an accommodative monetary policy was needed but also had
side effects that needed monitoring. The euro EUR=EBS was last flat at $1.1161, close to the
$1.1180 high reached last month. The dollar against a basket of
six major currencies .DXY edged up 0.1% to 97.289.
In commodities, oil prices crept higher on the trade
optimism. Brent crude futures LCOc1 gained 69 cents to $62.58
a barrel shortly before midday, its highest in over a month.
For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock
markets, click on: LIVE/
China's yuan strengthens https://tmsnrt.rs/2qitOPn
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