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Investing.com - A wave of global corporate spending on artificial intelligence is seen approach $3 trillion, with roughly half of that amount needing to be financed across public and private credit markets, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.
In a note, the analysts including Michael Zezas said they expect AI-related capital expenditures to contribute 0.4% of an estimated 1.8% U.S. gross domestic product growth in 2026.
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Companies have been shelling out ever larger sums of money on building out their AI capabilities, as firms race to both harness and ultimately monetize the nascent technology.
Meanwhile, "industrial companies tied to data center and onshoring buildouts, component suppliers/enablers across tech, AI adopters, and select financials positioned to intermediate the capex cycle all stand to benefit," the analysts said.
They added that earnings in a range of sectors should also be boosted, underpinning their prediction that the benchmark S&P 500 will end 2026 at 7,800. On Friday, the index finished at 6,602.99.
The comments come as traders have begun to flag concerns around the sustainability of massive -- and often debt-fueled -- spending by mega-cap tech groups on AI. The surge of AI financing is anticipated to push U.S. investment grade corporate bond issuances sharply higher, potentially creating technical pressure that could limit returns, the Morgan Stanley analysts projected.
Such worries have begun to dent broader sentiment, and even overshadowed solid quarterly results from AI-darling Nvidia last week.
Should the AI capex boom fail to deliver substantial productivity gains in a timely manner, leverage may rise faster than output, creating credit fears "that could weigh on markets," the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
"The good news is that the starting point is strong: corporate balance sheets are healthy, with cash levels high, leverage low, and (despite the hype) private credit metrics more consistent with manageable risks than late-cycle excesses," the analysts wrote.
"Hence, we don’t see this risk as a 2026 story, but vigilance is a 2026 responsibility."