Gold prices edge higher on raised Fed rate cut hopes
Investing.com -- The resumption of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip shipments to China is “unlikely to change” Beijing’s long-term artificial intelligence policy, according to Macquarie analysts.
While Macquarie said the move “marks a turning point in U.S./China trade talks,” it remains contentious.
“Chinese regulators appear to be pushing back on H20 usage, while U.S. lawmakers and political groups are displeased that the Trump administration is trading away national security for economic gain,” the analysts wrote.
Macquarie views the H20 “more as a stop-gap measure for China in the near-term to serve AI inference demand,” adding that the longer-term goal “remains to build out an indigenous end-to-end AI ecosystem.”
Recent announcements highlight “a fundamentally different approach toward establishing global AI leadership” between the two countries, said Macquarie.
The U.S. plan is “inwards looking, focused on building out domestic infrastructure while exporting U.S.-centric full-stack AI solutions.”
In contrast, China’s proposal takes “a multilateral approach with a focus on cross-border open source development to help emerging markets bridge the digital divide.”
Macquarie said China is likely to “continue heavy investments into its advanced semiconductor ecosystem” despite access to Nvidia chips.
The MSCI China Semiconductors forward P/E of 65x trades at “more than 2.5x premium” to the SOX index, with valuations skewed by solar companies unrelated to AI growth.
Macquarie sees the highest “AI beta” in “optical components like Innolight and IC design like Cambricon” rather than traditional manufacturing or packaging.
Among broader plays, the analysts view internet data center proxies such as Alibaba as “attractive” for risk-reward and quality.