TSX higher amid Fed rate cut hopes

Published 26/11/2025, 13:10
Updated 26/11/2025, 22:10
© Reuters

Investing.com - Canada’s main stock index climbed on Wednesday, with investors keeping tabs on hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.

The S&P/TSX composite index 280 or 0.90% at 31,180.25. 

Index ended the prior session up by 1%, exceeding an all-time high logged two weeks ago.

Sentiment was buoyed by expectations that the Fed will slash rates at its gathering next month, as part of a bid to provide support to a weakening labor market.

Anticipation around a commitment from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to carve out around C$280 billion over five years for infrastructure spending and other measures to boost productivity gave lift to domestic stocks as well.

U.S. stocks rise

U.S. stock were higher Wednesday. 

Around 3.17 PM ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 405 points, or 0.9%, the S&P 500 index gained 0.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 1%.

As in Canada, increased confidence that the Fed will cut rates next month aided sentiment, with a number of Fed policymakers speaking out in support of easing monetary policy over the course of the last few days.

Adding to this, weaker-than-expected retail sales data for September indicated that the U.S. consumer was struggling, increasing the impetus for another rate cut.

Markets are pricing in an over 80% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its Dec. 9-10 meeting, up sharply from the roughly 40% chance seen last week, CME Fedwatch showed.

There are more economic numbers to digest Wednesday, with a special focus on the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

“It provides anecdotal indications about the state of the economy – effectively replacing the delayed third-quarter GDP report,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

In October, the Beige Book signaled that while U.S. economic activity has been broadly stable, there have been emerging warnings of potential softening, particularly in increased layoffs and a pullback in spending by lower- and middle-income households.

The Fed will also receive more cues on inflation before its December meeting, with PCE price index data for September, which was expected to be released this week, being rescheduled to Dec. 5, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on its website.

Dell’s Q4 outlook impresses

There are more earning reports to pick over Wednesday, with Dell Technologies in the spotlight after the tech giant reporting an impressive outlook after Tuesday’s close.

Underpinned by soaring demand for its AI servers that are often equipped with Nvidia’s chips, Dell said it now expects to post fourth-quarter revenue of $31 billion to $32 billion, compared to LSEG estimates cited by Reuters of $27.59 billion.

Dell also raised its annual financial targets. Fiscal 2026 revenue is seen at $111.2 billion to $112.2 billion, versus a forecast of $105 billion to $109 billion previously. Its guidance for adjusted earnings per share was also lifted to $9.92.

On the flip side, HP shares dropped premarket after the computer and printer manufacturer issued disappointing guidance, saying it would cut 10% of its workforce.

Tech and AI-linked stocks have been nursing steep losses through November as investors fretted over a valuation bubble in the sector.

Elsewhere, agricultural equipment firm Deere & Co is due to report later Wednesday, while eyes will also be on Urban Outfitters after the clothing retailer posted strong third-quarter results after the previous session’s close.

Crude mixed

Oil prices hovered around both sides of the flatline, after dropping to a more than one-month low on concerns over an expected supply glut and a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent futures inched up 0.1% to $61.83 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to $57.93 a barrel.

Both crude benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told European leaders that he was ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework for ending the war with Russia, possibly resulting in Russian crude re-entering global supply.

However, Trump appeared to back away from a Thanksgiving deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace deal with Russia on Tuesday, saying only that progress was being made in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks fell last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute, with official stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration due later in the session.

Gold climbs

Gold prices rose, with haven demand for bullion appearing strong even as broader risk-driven assets rallied this week. Investors were following lingering tensions between Japan and China, as well as uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and stretched fiscal spending.

Spot gold moved up 1.0% to $4,173.09 an ounce, while gold futures for February were 1.0% higher at $4,208.15/oz.

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