TSX futures rise as U.S. inflation data, Trump-Putin meeting loom large

Published 11/08/2025, 12:06
© Reuters

Investing.com - Futures linked to Canada’s main stock exchange rose on Monday, as investors geared up for the release of key U.S. inflation data later this week and ongoing tariff negotiations between Washington and China.

By 06:49 ET (10:49 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had risen by 2 points, or 0.1%. The S&P/TSX composite index dipped slightly in the prior session, but still logged its best weekly performance since September 2024 thanks in part to solid earnings from e-commerce firm Shopify.

Lingering in the background this week is a highly-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday, with the two expected to discuss a potential Ukraine peace plan. On the trade front, a fragile tariff truce between the U.S. and China is due to expire on August 12, with no sign having yet emerged of a possible extension to their agreement.  

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will unveil a summary of its latest gathering on Wednesday. Two weeks ago, the central bank left interest rates steady, but signaled a willingness to cut rates should there be a weakening in the Canadian economy and inflation pressures remain muted.

Futures tick up

U.S. stock index futures edged marginally higher, pausing for breath after the previous week’s sharp gains, with investors awaiting key inflation prints due later in the week.

At 06:55 ET, Dow Jones Futures traded 108 points higher, or 0.3%, S&P 500 Futures gained 7 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures were mostly unchanged.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped on Friday, closing at a fresh all-time high, helped by Apple’s stock price surging by more than 13% last week -- its largest weekly gain since 2020. The other averages also gained last week.

CPI leads data deluge this week

This broadly positive tone on Wall Street faces the test of key economic data this week, with the focus on the release of U.S. consumer price data for July on Tuesday.

A separate gauge of producer prices for final demand is due out on Thursday, while a metric of American retail sales and a survey of consumer sentiment are expected to be published on Friday.

The weak July jobs report at the start of the month, which also included a sharp downward revision to the numbers for June and May, has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

Along with the labor market, inflation remains the other crucial pillar of the Federal Reserve’s two-pronged mandate, and it remains stubbornly elevated above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Additionally, the tariffs that the Trump administration has increased on imports from a number of trading partners are expected to lift domestic prices.

“Consensus is expecting another acceleration in core CPI, to 0.3% month-on-month (3.0% year-on-year), in this week’s July print,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “That is a number that can probably be seen as acceptable for the Federal Reserve to proceed with a September cut, given the backdrop of a significantly weaker jobs market.”

Nvidia/AMD to pay U.S. government for China sales?

Corporate earnings results for the second quarter have generally been better than expected, and investor reactions to these results have been more outsized than usual, possibly indicating that markets are homing in more on individual company performances than broader economic trends, according to analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).

The earnings slate is largely empty Monday, but eyes will be on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) after media reports suggested both chipmakers are set to pay the U.S. government 15% of the returns they make from the sale of its artificial intelligence to China.

Shares of C3.ai (NYSE:AI) were sharply lower in extended hours trading after the enterprise AI application software group issued a disappointing preliminary earnings announcement.

Crude stable ahead of Ukraine talks

Oil prices stabilized, after last week’s selloff ahead of scheduled talks between the U.S. and Russia later this week on the war in Ukraine.

At 06:56 ET, Brent futures edged higher to $66.71 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 0.1% to $63.97 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell by more than 4% last week as traders digested the news that Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Expectations have risen for a potential end to sanctions that have limited the supply of Russian oil to international markets.

Gold eases

Gold prices retreated, adding to the losses seen at the end of last week, as traders looked ahead to the Trump-Putin summit.

Trump’s deadline last Friday for Russia to strike a peace deal with Ukraine passed without stricter U.S. sanctions imposed on Moscow, and this has helped ease tensions. Demand for safe-haven gold was dented, as a result.

"But with Russia demanding that Ukraine cede occupied territory to end the war, it’s difficult to see a quick solution," said analysts at ING, in a note. "It’s unlikely that Ukraine will agree to give up its own territory."

At 07:00 ET, Spot Gold fell 1.2% to $3,358.80 an ounce and Gold Futures for December dropped 2.2% to $3,413.20/oz.

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