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- Delayed jobs report, Fed FOMC meeting minutes, Nvidia earnings, and retailer results will be in focus this week.
- Walmart is anticipated to deliver robust earnings and upbeat guidance that could extend its impressive 2025 run.
- Target looks vulnerable to a miss, with forecasts pointing to weak holiday prospects that may exacerbate its underperformance.
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Wall Street’s main indexes ended mostly lower on Friday, driven by a renewed selloff in technology stocks, while hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials added to doubts about an interest rate cut in December.
Source: Investing.com
After the week’s wild swings, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended down 0.5% for the period. However, both the benchmark S&P 500 and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average held on to gains, up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.
More volatility could be in store in the coming days as investors assess the outlook for the economy, interest rates and corporate earnings amid ongoing fears over lofty AI valuations.
With the U.S. government shutdown now over, investors will keep an eye out for important economic reports. This kicks off with the release of the U.S. jobs report for September on Thursday. That will be accompanied by the minutes of the Fed’s October FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Source: Investing.com
Elsewhere, in corporate earnings, Nvidia’s results will be the key update of the week as the reporting season draws to a close. Aside from Nvidia, quarterly earnings from retailers are due in the coming week including from Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and TJX Companies.
Regardless of which direction the market goes, below I highlight one stock likely to be in demand and another which could see fresh downside. Remember though, my timeframe is just for the week ahead, Monday, November 17 - Friday, Nov. 21.
Stock to Buy: Walmart
My pick for a "buy" this week is retail behemoth Walmart. The company is scheduled to deliver its third quarter earnings update on Thursday before the U.S. market opens and is in a prime position to deliver an upbeat report and, more importantly, issue strong forward guidance.
The expected move post-earnings in the options market for WMT stock is about +/-5.2% up or down. Sentiment has been notably positive heading into the print. Profit estimates have been revised upward 22 times, and recent notes highlight confidence in a "clean quarterly report" and bullish guidance. Telsey, TD Cowen, and UBS have all nudged targets higher, citing stability in core markets and strategic pricing power.
Source: InvestingPro
Wall Street sees the Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer delivering earnings per share of $0.60, rising 3.4% from EPS of $0.58 in the year-ago period. Revenue is forecast to increase 4.6% to $177.4 billion, buoyed by strategic pricing, increased market share, and consistent e-commerce growth.
With 60% of sales from groceries, Walmart benefits from stable demand for staples, even as tariffs loom. Comparable sales in the U.S. are expected to rise 4.5%, up from prior estimates. Its advertising arm, Walmart Connect, is on track for 28% revenue growth, adding high-margin fuel to the bottom line.
Walmart’s management team is expected to provide robust fourth-quarter guidance that reflects the company’s strong positioning for the crucial holiday selling season. CEO Doug McMillon, who oversaw a 400% stock gain, hands the reins to John Furner in February 2026. Analysts expect a seamless transition and continued operational excellence.
Source: Investing.com
WMT stock ended Friday’s session at $102.48, just off its 52-week high of $109.58. Walmart’s technical setup radiates relative strength. Its 1-hour chart signals a bullish bias: momentum indicators (Stochastic, StochRSI, ADX) flash “buy,” and moving averages (SMA/EMA) confirm uptrend support, with only minor resistance from the 20- and 200-period averages.
Additionally, Walmart posts a Financial Health Score of 2.65, which InvestingPro rates as "GOOD." This score reflects a balanced but resilient profile: strong profitability (3.72) and excellent price momentum (3.25).
Stock to Sell: Target
In stark contrast, I recommend a "sell" on Target. The big-box retailer is forecast to report disappointing earnings and, critically, is likely to issue weak guidance for the all-important holiday quarter.
Target is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings report ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday at 6:30AM ET. According to the options market, traders are pricing in a sizable swing of +/-10% in either direction for TGT stock following the print.
Telsey expects soft Q3 performance and worries about market share losses to Walmart, Amazon, and Costco, while recent analyst cuts, like Truist’s to $83, highlight merchandising missteps.
Source: InvestingPro
Target is seen earning $1.72 per share, marking a 7% drop from the prior year. Meanwhile, revenue is forecast to fall 1% year-over-year to $25.37 billion, with comparable sales expected to dip low-single digits amid inventory gluts and promotional pressures.
The company is grappling with several headwinds, including slowing store traffic and online sales, high operating costs, shrinking margins, as well as potential pressure from proposed tariffs that could impact its supply chain and product costs.
The real danger for the stock, however, lies in its forward guidance. A weak forecast for the fourth quarter—the most critical period for any retailer—would be a major red flag for Wall Street, signaling that management sees the consumer slowdown persisting through the holiday shopping season.
Source: Investing.com
TGT stock closed at $89.90 on Friday, not far from its recent 52-week low ($85.36). The technical summary is “strong sell” on every timeframe—Target’s momentum is notably negative heading into earnings, and weak guidance could easily trigger another leg down.
It should be noted that Target currently has an InvestingPro Health Score of 2.38 (“FAIR”), underscoring ongoing operational and sentiment challenges.
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.