Michael Ashton

From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...

Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...

Let me introduce you, for those who aren’t already acquainted, to the Unidad de Fomento. The Unidad de Fomento (UF) is an almost-unique currency in the world.[1] It was established in 1967 by Chile...

It was only a few months ago (with the March CPI report in April) that I was talking about a ‘Potential Pony Situation’ in my podcast when, after an unsettling Core CPI, I pointed out that the Median...

Not everybody is an options trader, but during an election year there is at least one binary option that most of us care quite a bit about and that’s the option on the US Presidency. There are ways...

In May, core CPI printed at +0.29% and +0.25% on Median. But a lot of that, most of it, was core goods and the question was whether that month was a one-off due to be reversed at some point, or if...

From time to time, you will read that the Federal Reserve is trying to “thread the needle” on rates. That is, they don’t want to keep rates too high for too long, lest they sink the economy, nor...

Core and Median inflation continue to decline. This is not really a surprise; since early 2023 the clear direction has been to lower inflation. The debate has not been about whether inflation was...

The CPI report for May was definitely good news. In April, core CPI was +0.29% and Median CPI was +0.35%; this month those figures were +0.16% for core and +0.25% (est) for median. That would be the...

The CPI for April came in pretty close to expectations. CPI came in at 0.31% m/m, and 0.29% on core, versus a priori expectations for 0.37% and 0.30%. This relative accuracy does not necessarily mean...