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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment.

The Fault, Dear Brutus, Is in R-Star
By Michael Ashton - Sep 25, 2025
I want to say something briefly about the “neutral rate of interest,” which has recently become grist for financial television because of new Trump-appointed Fed Governor Stephen...
Before I begin talking about today’s CPI, a quick word about the 24th anniversary of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, as someone who worked 1 block from the Towers, I can tell you it’s a day...
The Fate of Fed’s FAIT Was Fated
By Michael Ashton - Sep 03, 2025
Growth in the US is ebbing, and it is likely only the AI boom that is keeping us from recording a small recession. Unemployment is still rising, although slowly, and credit delinquencies are rising....
The inflation story and the employment story are about the only things rippling the still summer waters these days, it seems. The weak employment data in the most-recent report got equity investors...
A subscriber wrote to me recently and asked about a research piece put out by a major sell-side investment house that discussed how private rental indices (such as Zillow and the Fed’s NTRR (“New...
If you squint, can you see an effect of the deportations of illegal aliens in yesterday's CPI report? I don’t want to encourage anyone to obsess over every detail of the report. That’s almost always...
When Do Tariffs Hit Inflation - and By How Much?
By Michael Ashton - Jul 10, 2025
As we look forward to the CPI report next week, the monthly-repeating theme is ‘when will the tariff effect show up?’ The answer, so far, is ‘not yet,’ but economists who had forecasted the end of...
The Twin Deficits – 1 Out of 2 Is Bad
By Michael Ashton - Jun 25, 2025
From time to time, I circle back to the question of the balance of deficits. In my mind, as our economy goes through whatever the “Trump Transition” is, the biggest risk to the bond markets is not...
Well, this was an odd one to sort out. Going into the CPI announcement this morning, the economist consensus was for +0.17% (seasonally adjusted) on headline CPI m/m and +0.28% on core. Market...
I was planning to write today about why a 4.5%-5.0% nominal Treasury rate is not only not the end of the world, but actually sort of normal. Naturally, the reason I am even thinking about the topic...