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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment.

The inflation story and the employment story are about the only things rippling the still summer waters these days, it seems. The weak employment data in the most-recent report got equity investors...
A subscriber wrote to me recently and asked about a research piece put out by a major sell-side investment house that discussed how private rental indices (such as Zillow and the Fed’s NTRR (“New...
If you squint, can you see an effect of the deportations of illegal aliens in yesterday's CPI report? I don’t want to encourage anyone to obsess over every detail of the report. That’s almost always...
When Do Tariffs Hit Inflation - and By How Much?
By Michael Ashton - Jul 10, 2025
As we look forward to the CPI report next week, the monthly-repeating theme is ‘when will the tariff effect show up?’ The answer, so far, is ‘not yet,’ but economists who had forecasted the end of...
The Twin Deficits – 1 Out of 2 Is Bad
By Michael Ashton - Jun 25, 2025
From time to time, I circle back to the question of the balance of deficits. In my mind, as our economy goes through whatever the “Trump Transition” is, the biggest risk to the bond markets is not...
Well, this was an odd one to sort out. Going into the CPI announcement this morning, the economist consensus was for +0.17% (seasonally adjusted) on headline CPI m/m and +0.28% on core. Market...
I was planning to write today about why a 4.5%-5.0% nominal Treasury rate is not only not the end of the world, but actually sort of normal. Naturally, the reason I am even thinking about the topic...
Before the CPI analysis, I always try to give some context for where we are in the ‘story’ about the evolution of inflation right now. It’s really difficult to do that, though, because of all of the...
Before we get started on today’s CPI, let me add a few wise words from an old market observer: The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is the (private real economy) times (price per...
The Coming Surge in College Tuition Inflation
By Michael Ashton - Apr 04, 2025
The recent news is clearly about the imposition of new reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners and the responses that those countries will have to the tariffs. In terms of the markets’ reactions,...