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The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a 25 basis point cut to its policy rate, bringing it down to 3.00%, in line with expectations. The central bank also signaled the end of its quantitative tightening policy and plans to resume asset purchases starting in early March.
This decision comes amid the BoC’s concerns over potential tariffs from the new US administration, which could test the resilience of Canada’s economy.
The BoC has also removed forward guidance from its policy statement, citing the current economic uncertainties. Governor Tiff Macklem, in a press conference, explained the decision to withdraw rate guidance, emphasizing the high level of uncertainty and questioning the usefulness of providing such guidance under these conditions.
The statement acknowledged the significant reduction in the policy rate since June but noted that Canada’s economic resilience could be challenged by broad-based and significant tariffs.
Governor Macklem highlighted that the threat of tariffs played a role in reinforcing the decision to implement the recent rate cut. While not the sole factor, the potential imposition of tariffs by the US is a significant concern for the BoC’s policy actions.
The central bank has also performed a scenario analysis, estimating that a 25% US tariff on Canadian products could result in a 2.5% negative impact on Canada’s growth in the first year.
Bank of America (BofA) analysts have projected that the BoC is unlikely to make further rate cuts, setting this as their baseline expectation. They base this forecast on the improved economic conditions in Canada, the inflation rate hovering around 2.0%, and the BoC’s focus on tariffs.
BofA suggests that any additional rate cuts would likely occur only if the US moves forward with its tariff plan. However, they also acknowledge that there are downside risks to their prediction.
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