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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares lead global rout, bonds bet on rate cuts

Published 25/02/2020, 00:24
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares lead global rout, bonds bet on rate cuts
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* Markets price in risk of pandemic, deep damage to world

economy

* Nikkei futures point to 1,000 point fall, matching Dow

* Bonds fly as investors wager on central bank, fiscal

stimulus

* Oil leads commodities sharply lower on demand fears

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Asian share markets were heading

south on Tuesday amid fears the coronavirus was rapidly mutating

into a pandemic that could cripple global supply chains and

wreak far greater economic damage than first thought.

Both U.S. and European equities suffered their steepest

losses since mid-2016, while demand concerns savaged prices for

oil and a whole swathe of industrial commodities.

Sovereign bond yields dived as investors sought the most

liquid of safe havens and wagered central banks would have to

ride to the rescue with a burst of new stimulus.

"This is a world now where economies are so intertwined that

it's hard to know what the economic impact will be," said

Rodrigo Catrill, a currency strategist at NAB.

"It's certainly hard to see a catalyst that might stop the

losses in the near term, though the market has moved

aggressively to price in U.S. rate cuts as early as June."

Futures for the Federal Reserve funds rate 0#FF: have

surged in the last few days to price in a better-than-even

chance of a quarter-point rate cut in April. In all, they imply

more than 50 basis points of reductions by year end.

Central banks across Asia have already been easing policy,

while governments have promised large injections of fiscal

stimulus, something western countries might have to consider.

For now, selling shares seemed to be the safe choice for

investors and futures NKc1 suggested Japan's Nikkei .N225

could mirror the Dow and drop 1,000 points at the opening.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS slipped 0.2% in early trade, having fallen 2.5%

on Monday. and Australia .AXJO shed another 1.4%.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 eased 0.2%, having

plunged overnight as the full implications of the virus' spread

finally caught up with Wall Street.

The Dow .DJI ended Monday down 3.55%, while the S&P 500

.SPX lost 3.35% and the Nasdaq .IXIC 3.71%. Wall Street's

fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX , jumped to its

highest close since early 2019.

Underlining the economic impact of the virus was a 3.5% drop

in Apple Inc AAPL.O as data showed sales of smartphones in

China tumbled by more than a third in January. BAY FOR RATE CUTS

The coronavirus death toll climbed to seven in Italy on

Monday and several Middle East countries were dealing with their

first infections, feeding worries it could turn into a pandemic.

"If travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions spread,

the impact on global growth could be more widespread and longer

lasting," said Jonas Glotermann at Capital Economics.

"While we still think that it would take a significant

deterioration in the outlook for the U.S. economy for

policymakers to cut rates, they may feel compelled to do so if

the virus spreads and leads to continued falls in the stock

market and inversion of the Treasury yield curve."

The rush to bonds drove yields on 10-year Treasury notes

US10YT=RR down 10 basis points to 1.37%, so paying less than a

three-month deposit. Yields are now rapidly approaching the

all-time low of 1.321% hit in July 2016.

The sharp drop, combined with the simple fact the Fed had

far more room to cut rates than its peers, kept the U.S. dollar

restrained after a run of strong gains.

The euro edged up a little from recent three-year lows to

reach $1.0853 EUR= , while the dollar fell back to 110.77 yen

JPY= and away from a 10-month top at 112.21. USD/

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was all but

steady at 99.286 =USD .

The search for safe harbours saw gold touch a seven-year

peak at $1,688.66 an ounce overnight. The metal was last trading

at $1,658.94 XAU= . GOL/

Demand worries saw oil prices go the other way to shed

nearly 4% on Monday. Brent crude LCOc1 futures were last off

$2.28 at $56.22 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 sank $2.04 to

$51.34. O/R

Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA

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(Editing by Sam Holmes)

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