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GLOBAL MARKETS-Europe cheers Italy pact, bond bulls pause for breath

Published 29/08/2019, 10:53
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Europe cheers Italy pact, bond bulls pause for breath
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* European shares and Italy and Greece bonds rally on Rome

* Yields on US 30-yr, German 10-yr bonds edge up off record

* Gold near 6-year high, silver shines

* Pound groggy after UK parliament suspension plans

* Argentina says wants to restructure chunk of debt

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Signs that Italy's latest

political drama was over and hopeful noises from Beijing in the

trade war pushed Europe's share markets higher on Thursday and

paused the relentless steamrollering of global bond yields.

There was still plenty for bearish investors to chew on,

however: A sudden rush from Argentina to restructure its debt

thrust emerging market risk back into the spotlight, global

recession worries simmered, and the pound was groggy after

another Brexit-related tumble.

Nevertheless, European shares rose nearly 1% early on led by

a 1.7% jump in Italy .FTMIB where the government's bond market

borrowing costs also rallied to record lows.

That was after the country's 5-Star Movement and opposition

Democratic Party said they would try to form a coalition,

setting aside years of hostility to avert a snap election and

the economic uncertainty that comes with it.

The two sides still need to agree on a shared policy

platform and a team of ministers, but 5-Star chief Luigi Di Maio

and his PD counterpart Nicola Zingaretti said they had pledged

to find common ground for the good of the country.

"We love Italy and we consider it worthwhile to try this

experience," Zingaretti told reporters. Speaking shortly

afterwards, Di Maio said: "We made commitments to the

Italians...and come what may we want to fulfil them."

There was little reaction from the euro but there was barely

any currency market action generally. /FRX

The Japanese yen JPY= was a touch higher heading for its

biggest monthly rise since May, while sterling was flirting with

a January 2017 low of $1.2015 against the dollar after Prime

Minister Boris Johnson's plan on Wednesday to suspend Britain's

parliament increased no-deal Brexit nerves.

China's yuan CNY=CFXS had dipped for an 11th straight

session although a firmer-than-expected central bank fixing

helped stem deeper losses and against a basket of currencies

.DXY the dollar was steady around 98.190.

On the latest trade war development, China said it and the

United States were discussing the next round of face-to-face

trade talks in September and voiced hopes that U.S. President

Donald Trump would cancel plans for additional trade tariffs.

In the latest tit-for-tat escalation of the trade war

between the world's two largest economies, Trump last Friday

announced additional duties of 5% on targeted Chinese imports

worth about $550 billion to be imposed in stages from Sept 1 to

mid-December. The announcement came hours after China had unveiled

retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods.

"The most important thing at the moment is to create

necessary conditions for both sides to continue negotiations,"

China's commerce ministry spokesman, Gao Feng, told reporters.

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO

The comments had come after a choppy Asian session. MSCI's

broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.15%, Singapore shares .STI hit

eight-month lows and Japan's Nikkei .N225 ended fractionally

lower.

Bond markets around the world were also still grappling with

recession worries. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year

German bunds had both hit record lows - 1.905 percent

US30YT=RR and minus 0.716 percent DE10YT=TWEB respectively.

Inversion also remains a prominent feature across the U.S.

yield curve, where long-dated yields are below short-dated ones

- a reliable indicator ahead of U.S. recessions in the past.

The 10-year Japanese government bond yield JP10YTN=JBTC

had dipped 1 basis point to minus 0.285% overnight too, which is

just above its record low of minus 0.300% touched in 2016.

"Falls in global bond yields reflect growing concerns that

long-term global growth is slowing down on U.S.-China tensions

and worries over subsequent global supply chain disruptions,"

said Tomoo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset

Management in Tokyo.

"Stock markets on the other hand are supported in the

near-term by hopes of more stimulus, notably from the Federal

Reserve and the European Central Bank," he said.

The two major central banks are expected to cut rates next

month, while many investors believe the Bank of Japan could join

the fray if market sentiment weakens further.

ARGENTINA RESTRUCTURING

Precious metal investors were still on a quest to buy safer

assets.

Gold XAU= rose as high as $1,543 per ounce, near six-year

highs of $1,556.1 set earlier in the week, while silver XAU=

rose 1.2% to $18.55 per ounce which is just shy of a 2017 peak

of $18.65 an ounce.

Also reflecting nervousness, the Merrill Lynch move index

.MERMOVE3M , a gauge of investors' expectations on how volatile

U.S. bonds will be, has risen back near three-year highs marked

earlier this month.

The MSCI emerging market currency index .MIEM00000CUS was

also at its lowest levels since mid-November, having fallen 0.9%

so far this week and set for its biggest monthly fall in more

than seven years.

The latest hit came in Argentina as it said it wanted to

restructure a large chunk of its bonds by extending their

maturities and to "re-profile" the maturities of debt owed to

the IMF under a $57 billion standby agreement. The battered peso took another hammering on Wednesday, even

though the central bank intervened heavily in the foreign

exchange market for a second consecutive day.

Argentine assets have been slammed since business-friendly

President Mauricio Macri was trounced in primary elections by

centre-left Peronist challenger Alberto Fernandez.

"President Macri instructed me to solve the short-term

problem to guarantee electoral stability, but also in the

medium- and long-term so as not to leave a problem for the

person who follows, be it he or another candidate," Argentina's

Treasury Minister, Hernan Lacunza, said.

S&P dividend yield vs 30-yr U.S. Treasury https://tmsnrt.rs/2zqVAu7

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