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GLOBAL MARKETS-Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand

Published 30/01/2020, 08:02
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand
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* Virus death toll rises, WHO to reconsider declaring

emergency

* Economists slash China growth forecasts

* Stocks extend falls, safe-haven assets sought

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Tom Westbrook and Swati Pandey

SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Asian stocks and

currencies tumbled further on Thursday, as the rising death toll

from a virus spreading from China led airlines to cut flights

and stores to close, increasing pressure on the world's

second-largest economy as fears of a pandemic grow.

European stocks are also set to fall. EuroSTOXX 50 futures

STXEc1 and DAX futures FDXc1 are down 0.8%. FTSE futures

FFIc1 point to a negative open in London. U.S. stock futures

ESc1 , down 0.6%, suggest a negative open on Wall Street.

The number of confirmed deaths from the virus in China has

climbed to 170 with 7,711 people infected, and more cases are

being reported around the world. Chinese factories have extended holidays, global airlines

cut flights and Sweden's Ikea said it would shut all of its

stores in China to help contain the outbreak. Economists have

begun slashing the country's growth outlook.

"The news flow in the past couple of hours has been quite

bleak," said Prashant Newnaha a Singapore-based strategist at TD

Securities. "So the risk off tone continues."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 2% to a seven-week low and has now dropped

for six straight sessions.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell nearly 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng

.HSI fell 2.3% and Taiwan's benchmark index .TWII slumped

5.8% in its first session since the Lunar New Year break.

Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries, which fall when

prices rise, hit a three-month low of 1.5600% US10YT=RR . Gold

nudged higher XAU= .

The World Health Organisation's Emergency Committee is due

to reconvene later in the day to decide whether the rapid spread

of the virus now constitutes a global emergency. "There's a buyers strike. Lot of reasons to sell and no

reason to buy, so you're seeing this bleeding," said Chris

Weston, Head of Research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.

"There is some concern about tonight's presser by the WHO.

The fear is that they might raise the alarm bells...so people

are taking money off the table."

Singapore-traded futures for Chinese markets SFCc1 - which

have been closed since Jan. 23 and re-open on Monday - dropped

2% and have fallen 10% in the 10 days since the spread of the

virus began to roil markets.

CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES

Trade exposed Asian currencies and commodities sensitive to

Chinese demand extended losses as economists made deep cuts to

their China growth forecasts.

The Chinese yuan CNH= reversed Wednesday's gains to weaken

0.2%. The Australian dollar AUD=D3 hit a 3-1/2-month low and

the kiwi dollar NZD=D3 was a fraction above a two-month low.

The Taiwan dollar TWD=TP fell half a percentage point to

its lowest this year. The Thai baht THB=TH , exposed to inbound

tourism from China, has shed 3% in a week. FRX/

Oil prices, a barometer of the expected impact of the virus

on the world's economy, resumed their slide. Brent crude LCOc1

shed a percentage point and has dropped 10% since Jan 20. O/R

Chicago soybean futures slid for an eighth straight session

on growing fears that promised Chinese purchases of U.S. farm

goods will not materialise.

"China is the kingpin of the global commodities market," ING

economists said in a note. "The longer factories remain closed,

travel restricted and construction stalled, the larger the

ramifications."

SARS 2.0?

Most analysts have looked to the impact from the 2002-2003

spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed

800 people and pounded tourism and confidence, albeit briefly.

Yet the number of infections has already almost exceeded the

8,000 total SARS cases and, nearly two decades later, China's

share of the world economy has increased fourfold.

Citi expects China's 2020 growth to slow to 5.5% because of

the virus, after previously predicting it to be 5.8%, with the

sharpest slowdown this quarter. That is even more bearish than

J.P. Morgan and ING economists, who forsee a slowdown to 5.6.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged on

Wednesday the risks from any slowdown in the Chinese economy but

said it was too early to say what the extent of the impact would

be on the United States.

"SARS is a base case but until we get more information it's

very difficult for markets to gauge," said Jim McCafferty, Joint

Head of APAC Equity Research at Nomura in Hong Kong.

"It's very difficult for investors to get a gauge for the

magnitude of this, if this is going to be multi-day or a

multi-week or a multi-month event."

(Editing by Sam Holmes and Jacqueline Wong)

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