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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, pound rise on cautious Brexit deal hopes

Published 15/10/2019, 06:32
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, pound rise on cautious Brexit deal hopes
AXJO
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JP225
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DE30
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UK100
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MIAPJ0000PUS
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CSI300
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* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

* Equities eke out gains

* Sentiment still fragile due to U.S.-China trade war

* Policymakers struggle to reduce risks to global economy

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Asian stocks and the pound gained

on Tuesday as investors held out hope that Britain still had a

chance of avoiding a messy exit from the European Union at key

negotiations this week.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.1%. Australian shares .AXJO were up

0.17%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 was up 1.86%.

The pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures STXEc1 rose 0.23%,

German DAX futures FDXc1 were 0.16% higher, while FTSE futures

FFIc1 were up 0.12%.

The pound rose against the dollar and the euro, reflecting

the cautious optimism about talks between Britain and the EU.

Capping broader gains in equities, however, was a perceived

lack of progress coming out of U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Reports of a "Phase 1" trade deal between the United States

and China last week had earlier cheered markets but the dearth

of details around the agreement has since curbed this enthusiasm

with oil prices extending declines, Chinese stocks weaker and

the safe-haven yen holding gains versus dollar.

The focus has now shifted to Europe where officials from

Britain and the EU will meet at a make-or-break summit on

Thursday and Friday that will determine whether or not Britain

is headed for a so-called no-deal Brexit.

"Given the parliamentary intervention, I would say the

chance of a no-deal Brexit is around 10% to 20%," said Shane

Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP

Capital Investors in Sydney.

"If there is a deal, sterling would rally and risk assets

would rally, but the reaction could be limited to a day."

U.S. stock futures ESc1 rose 0.27% on Tuesday in Asia

after the S&P 500 ended 0.14% lower.

Traders, however, cautioned that sentiment remains fragile

because the outcome of Brexit talks is far from certain and the

U.S.-China trade war remains a risk to global growth.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to strike an exit

deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly

departure on Oct. 31. The main sticking point remains the border between EU member

Ireland and Northern Ireland, which belongs to the UK. Some EU

politicians have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be

reached.

However, diplomats from the EU have indicated they are

pessimistic about Johnson's proposed solution for the border and

want more concessions.

In the currency market, sterling GBP=D3 rose 0.17% to

$1.2632, approaching a three-month high of $1.2708. The pound

EURGBP=D3 also rose around 0.18% to 87.34 pence per euro.

The yen JPY=EBS , often considered a safe haven in times of

economic uncertainty, held steady at 108.33 versus the dollar.

A perceived lack of progress in resolving a prolonged trade

row between the United States and China also weighed on investor

confidence.

Chinese stocks .CSI300 fell 0.44% on Tuesday, led by

declines in the technology sector. In the onshore market, the

yuan CNY=CFXS traded at 7.0740 per dollar, pulling back from a

two-month high reached on Monday.

The United States agreed to delay an Oct. 15 increase in

tariffs on Chinese goods while Beijing said it would buy as much

as $50 billion of U.S. agricultural products after tense

negotiations last week.

However, Washington has left in place tariffs on hundreds of

billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

Trade experts and China market analysts say chances are high

that Washington and Beijing will fail to agree on any specifics

- as happened in May - in time for a mid-November meeting

between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.71% to $53.21 per barrel following

a 2% decline overnight due to worries that global energy demand

will remain weak.

Brent crude LCOc1 also fell 0.78% to $58.89 per barrel.

By early last week, hedge funds had become the most bearish

towards petroleum prices since the start of the year, according

to an analysis of position records published by the U.S.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe.

China's trade-war scorecard https://tmsnrt.rs/2VyzGPK

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(Editing by Sam Holmes)

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