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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks rattled, oil sinks as bond markets scream recession

Published 15/08/2019, 06:56
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks rattled, oil sinks as bond markets scream recession
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* 10-yr Treasury yields drop under 2-yr first time in 12

years

* Investors fear inversion heralds recession, hope for Fed

rescue

* Asia shares slip as Dow loses 800 points in worst day of

* Oil extends big overnight drop on demand, supply pressures

* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Tomo Uetake and Wayne Cole

TOKYO/SYDNEY, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Asian stocks stumbled and

oil prices extended a punishing sell-off on Thursday as

investors feared an historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields

could portend a recession globally.

Spooked investors stampeded to the safety of sovereign debt

and drove yields on 30-year Treasuries US30YT=RR to all-time

lows at 1.965%. Yields have now fallen a staggering 60 basis

points in just 12 sessions to pay less than three-month debt.

Yields on 10-year paper US10YT=RR dropped to 1.545%,

taking them under two-year paper. Such an inversion was last

seen in 2007 and correctly foretold the great recession that

followed a year later. US/

"The yield curves are all 'crying timber' that a recession

is almost a reality and investors are tripping over themselves

to get out of the way as economic recession hurts corporate

earnings and stocks can drop as much as 20%," said Chris Rupkey,

chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.

The only saving grace was that the sheer scale of the scare

would be bound to alarm central banks everywhere and likely draw

a policy response, especially from the Federal Reserve.

The futures market was clearly expecting drastic action as

it priced in a greater chance the Fed would have to cut rates by

half a point at its September meeting. FEDWATCH

"Hoping for the best on the policy front but positioning for

the worst on the economic backdrop seems to be the flavour of

the day," said Stephen Innes, a managing partner at Valour

Markets.

"The Fed, now out of necessity alone, will need to adjust

policy much more profoundly than they expected."

That hope helped E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 nudge

0.5% higher in late Asian trade, while the EUROSTOXX 50 STXEc1

was last traded up 0.3%, suggesting a modestly higher open for

European stocks.

Kozo Koide, Asset Management One's chief economist,

dismissed the possibility of an inter-meeting move by the

Federal Reserve before the scheduled September review under the

current situation.

"I doubt if this is a good signal of a recession. Obviously

some program trades were set off when the inversion occurred,

and caused the markets to tremble. Although I expect a September

cut, the situation is still far from a crisis."

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

.MIAPJ0000PUS dropped 0.7% and briefly touched a seven-month

Japan's Nikkei average .N225 was off 1.3%, while China's

benchmark Shanghai Composite .SSEC lost 0.4% and Hong Kong's

Hang Seng .HSI stood flat on the day.

A SELF-FULFILLING CYCLE

All three of the major U.S. stock indexes tumbled about 3%

overnight, with the blue-chip Dow .DJI posting its biggest

one-day point drop since October. .N

Global growth woes have mounted as the Sino-U.S. trade war

claimed ever more victims, with the German economy contracting

in the June quarter and a truly dire set of activity data for

July out of China. President Donald Trump on Wednesday seemed to tie a U.S.

trade deal with China to a humane resolution of the weeks of

protests wracking Hong Kong. A top Australian central banker on Thursday warned a world

downturn could become "self-fulfilling" if the uncertainty over

trade led businesses to put off investment indefinitely.

The threat to global demand took a heavy toll on oil prices,

with Brent crude LCOc1 losing another 0.6% to $59.12 a barrel,

after shedding 3% overnight. U.S. crude CLc1 was last down

0.4% at $55.03. O/R

Safe-haven gold gained 0.3% to $1,521.00 per ounce XAU= ,

not far from its highest since April 2013.

Major currencies were relatively calm, with the yen gaining

just a little from its status as a safe harbour. The dollar was

last at 105.91 yen JPY= having fallen 0.8% overnight form a

top of 106.77.

The dollar index .DXY was a shade easier at 97.925, with

the euro bearing its own burdens at $1.1149 EUR= following

Wednesday's soft German data.

U.S. yield curve inversion Aug. 14 2019 Image https://tmsnrt.rs/2YQ1VhR

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