Market Overview

After over two years of Fed pauses, pivots, and uncertainty, the Fed has finally kicked off a new cycle by cutting its overnight rate by 50 bps and delivering an even more dovish dot plot than...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...

Today’s retail sales report could be critical, especially if it comes in weak, as the market is currently uncertain about the number of rate cuts expected tomorrow. Currently, Fed Fund Futures show...

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut rates for the second time this year, following its initial cut in June. The Deposit Facility Rate, which determines the interest banks earn...

This week will feature critical central bank meetings, with the Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. While the Fed will capture most of the focus in the...

The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is...

The financial markets have been expecting more cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) than Eric and I have all year so far. At the start of this year, the markets anticipated six to seven rate cuts in...

Over the past few decades, the global landscape of technological research has undergone an unprecedented transformation. While the United States once dominated this strategic field, China has...

Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...

The highly anticipated U.S. August CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.5% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.2%. The CPI print could potentially...

Stocks rose for the second day in a row, but other indicators painted a different picture despite the gains. Oil prices fell, the Japanese yen strengthened, credit spreads widened, and the broader...