Market Overview

This will be a hectic week. Earnings season is winding down, of course, but we have lots of economic data, starting on Wednesday with the core CPI, which is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m from 0.2%....

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital to understanding our lead question: where does money come from? Furthermore,...

The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its...

The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this study, the regulator constructed a large database with balance sheet information...

Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until about 2 PM, when we experienced a significant downdraft. However, that was...

The Fed is cautious, and so is the Bank of Japan. The ECB seems determined to keep cutting and the Bank of England might be tempted to speed up its rate reduction pace later in the year. The US...

I am continually fascinated by how many second-order ‘understandings’ are missed, even by those people who have a really good first-order understanding of finance. For example, every financial...

Overall, the macro & liquidity conditions are still positive for risk assets. While equity market valuations are rich, especially in the US, earnings growth momentum is accelerating, and market...

Since many of you were not trading through the wild Trump 2.0 years, I felt that it was important to share my tips on how to navigate the market volatility. Don't miss this 2025 Day Trader Survival...

Q4 S&P 500® EPS growth expected to come in at 13.2%, the highest growth rate in three years. Large-cap outlier earnings dates this week include: AMD, JNPR, HON, ALGN. Peak season begins...

Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap dropped, DeepSeek continues to disrupt, and European banks outperformed the Mag 7. Here are the last seven days in seven charts. 1. $590 Billion Dollars of Nvidia...

The Tariff Man is back, and I guess at this point, those on social media who thought that tariffs were negotiating tactics and thought Trump was bluffing weren’t around during Trump 1.0. This version...

The markets certainly didn't give a ringing endorsement to Trump 2.0 tariffs announced on Friday: 25% each on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. During his presidential campaign, Trump talked about...

The Fed’s meeting lived up to expectations: boring. Boring is fine. They kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The only market reaction resulted from some heavy-handed...