Market Overview

Stocks rose for the second day in a row, but other indicators painted a different picture despite the gains. Oil prices fell, the Japanese yen strengthened, credit spreads widened, and the broader...

Tomorrow’s update on US consumer inflation for August isn’t expected to derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, but the disinflation trend of late looks set to...

We are observing a true regime change in markets. And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with this: the Fed is behind...

The yield curve's longest inversion in history ended recently. Despite many predictions, a recession did not follow the inversion. This captures a valuable lesson for investors. For less than $9 a...

European and US stock futures are trading mixed, while investors are paying close attention to economic numbers from China and Europe. Over in Europe, we saw the German Final CPI m/m number matching...

The U.S. economy could be heading into choppy waters, and investors may be wise to buckle up. Recent data suggest that storm clouds could be gathering, with declines in U.S. manufacturing, a...

The macro evidence suggests we are at a major turning point. It’s the sort of thing that could precipitate a reversal in the relative performance of commodities versus stocks. On its own, the stock...

Recessions don’t happen very often, and they don’t last very long. Most of the nine recessions since 1960 were caused by the tightening of monetary policy, which triggered a financial crisis and a...

This past week, I heard an interview with President Trump, during which he postulated that “this country will go into a depression if she wins the presidency.”  Now, believe me, I am no fan of...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than...

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We...

The current lineup of US GDP nowcasts for the third quarter continue to indicate a softer but still solid growth rate. Wall Street is wondering if the upcoming payrolls report for August will change...

Stocks ended the day mostly flat, resembling a pause. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market trade lower today, ahead of the payroll report, which is due tomorrow. Implied volatility will likely...

Part One of this article described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types...