Market Overview

Forget about a recession in the US. Currently, it is China's recession/depression that is weighing on oil prices, global bond yields, and the dollar. Weak Chinese demand for oil caused OPEC today to...

We have written many articles and commentaries forecasting interest rates. The analysis has used prior and current inflation and economic activity. Additionally, we have looked at market data on...

The highly anticipated U.S. August CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.5% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.2%. The CPI print could potentially...

Stocks rose for the second day in a row, but other indicators painted a different picture despite the gains. Oil prices fell, the Japanese yen strengthened, credit spreads widened, and the broader...

Tomorrow’s update on US consumer inflation for August isn’t expected to derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, but the disinflation trend of late looks set to...

We are observing a true regime change in markets. And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with this: the Fed is behind...

European and US stock futures are trading mixed, while investors are paying close attention to economic numbers from China and Europe. Over in Europe, we saw the German Final CPI m/m number matching...

The U.S. economy could be heading into choppy waters, and investors may be wise to buckle up. Recent data suggest that storm clouds could be gathering, with declines in U.S. manufacturing, a...

The macro evidence suggests we are at a major turning point. It’s the sort of thing that could precipitate a reversal in the relative performance of commodities versus stocks. On its own, the stock...

Recessions don’t happen very often, and they don’t last very long. Most of the nine recessions since 1960 were caused by the tightening of monetary policy, which triggered a financial crisis and a...

This week all eyes will turn to prices, with the CPI report on Wednesday, the PPI report on Thursday, and import/export prices on Friday. Analysts expect the CPI report to show a 0.2%...

This past week, I heard an interview with President Trump, during which he postulated that “this country will go into a depression if she wins the presidency.”  Now, believe me, I am no fan of...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than...

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday after the stock market closed, that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had sent Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation. We...