Market Overview

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it...

The 10-year rate ended the day in a particularly interesting position, given its significance in the broader financial landscape. It closed at 3.81%, just above the August 5 close of 3.79%. The 3.8%...

Credit spreads remained steady yesterday, but there were notable movements elsewhere. The one-month implied correlation index, which gauges how stocks might move together, increased. At the same...

Social media has become the place where many of us spend our time, share our lives and, increasingly, get our news. An estimated 12 billion combined hours are spent every day on these platforms,...

US recession risk appeared to ease in the wake of last week’s encouraging updates for retail sales and jobless claims. Will the better-than-expected numbers delay the widely expected rate cut that...

I expect volatility to increase this week, particularly with VIX options expiring on Wednesday. The current VIX option positions suggest that the VIX may remain around the 15 level, which means the...

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report,...

Stocks kept rising because retail sales and jobless claims data were better than expected. This is the second week in a row that stocks have jumped after a good jobless claims report. I’m not sure if...

Stocks were mostly flat to slightly up yesterday, with the S&P 500 getting a boost in the last 10 minutes due to a big closing imbalance. Other than that, it was a pretty quiet day. The CPI...

It was only a few months ago (with the March CPI report in April) that I was talking about a ‘Potential Pony Situation’ in my podcast when, after an unsettling Core CPI, I pointed out that the Median...

A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions. They...

Markets are bracing for a key CPI report today. This data comes amid growing recession fears after weak labor market data. A lower-than-expected print could drive a stock rally, but a...

Stocks finished the day higher yesterday after a weaker-than-expected PPI report. Although rates fell, it didn’t result in a significant yield curve steepening, and the dollar was only slightly...

Early assessments of third-quarter economic activity for the US point to a slowdown vs. Q2, based on the median nowcast for estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The downshift is prominent, but...