Market Overview

I must say that I didn’t see this one coming. Credit where credit is due, though: while Street economists were just a little low (consensus was +0.40% headline, +0.30% core), the CPI swap market...

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a...

Today's spotlight is on the crucial US CPI report, with estimates suggesting potential declines in both the monthly and annual core CPI. Market expectations project a decrease in the annual Core...

Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy.Hiring rose 275,000 last month, beating...

Animal spirits are running loose. Bitcoin just hit all-time highs; NFTs of penguins and monkeys selling for over $500k; Virtually bankrupt stocks like Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) rallying to the...

This week will be dominated by inflation data and the bond auction returning to the 1 PM ET time slot. Today, a 3-year Treasury auction will be at 1 PM ET.Tuesday will release the highly anticipated...

Several indicators of investor sentiment are showing rising “greed” levels. And when investors get greedy, it tends to imply that we are nearing a top.But, I am unsure why greed levels are...

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify in the House today (Wed., Mar. 6) and markets will be all ears on topics that offer guidance on the outlook for interest-rate cuts.The current consensus...

In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, economic growth is above historical trends, and financial...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, ahead of Jay Powell’s testimony today. It would be great if Powell acknowledged how much financial conditions have eased and that easing conditions could undermine...

In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...

Though the economy is stable and markets are bullish by definition of price trends, the underpinning is anything but healthy.The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 daysOf...

Despite a slight slowdown, the economy continues to thrive and the chances of a rate cut at the March 20 meeting stand at a minuscule 2%. In this piece, we will consider the recent statements from...