Market Overview

As the Fed pivot starts with a 50-basis-point slash, the bond market expects more to come, and gold should benefit. Meanwhile, the risk of a second inflationary wave isn’t dismissed, and the Nasdaq...

So far, September isn't living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, "What...

From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation. The media pounded and pounded the yield curve’s inversion as a signal about an imminent economic...

As I have noted here for the past few months, the narrative surrounding generative AI has shifted dramatically. This is starting to lead to a shift in estimates of the major players’ potential...

This week will be relatively quiet in terms of economic data. The main events are Treasury auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes, scheduled around 1 PM Tuesday, Wednesday, and...

The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...

Last week, the Fed vice chair for supervision, Michael Barr, announced that the regulator had cut a proposed increase to capital requirements for the largest US banks by more than half. According to...

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market melt-up, and a rerun of That '70s Show with geopolitical shocks...

Wow, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps yesterday and the economy is already responding. Jobless claims fell and two regional business surveys strengthened in September, while the...

Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that...

After over two years of Fed pauses, pivots, and uncertainty, the Fed has finally kicked off a new cycle by cutting its overnight rate by 50 bps and delivering an even more dovish dot plot than...

The recent run of forecasts from some corners that a US recession is imminent, or possibly already underway, continues to look premature. Although it’s short-sighted to dismiss various risks that are...

With investors eager for a rate cut, I believe the Federal Reserve will proceed with caution, opting for a 25bps reduction rather than a more aggressive 50bps cut. Cutting too much, too fast would...