Market Overview

I am constantly amazed at certain articles of faith among the economics community. In my line of expertise, one of the most amazing to me is the absolute conviction with which the economics community...

For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give...

Success in trading isn’t about guessing market direction—it’s about executing a well-defined framework with discipline and precision. This framework provides a structured approach to identifying...

Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations. Excluding food and energy, the news was not much better, with a 0.45% advance. It was a...

US economic activity is on track to maintain a moderate growth rate in 2025’s first quarter, according to the median for several nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s initial Q1 estimate...

Market Shakes Off Inflation Data I am back from traveling, and we have a good bit to catch up on since our last report. If you missed it, I provided an update on Tuesday, updating all the weekly...

US Economy I: On the Road Again. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” was her sixth tour. It started on March 17, 2023, in Glendale, Arizona and concluded on December 8, 202,4 in Vancouver, British...

It will be a slow start to the week, with the markets closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day. Things should pick up for the market by Wednesday. Of course, we’ll have the Fed minutes, and then on...

Stocks finished the day higher as bond yields fell following the PPI report. The key data points in the data suggested that core PCE will likely not come in as hot as the core CPI report left...

Yesterday's CPI came in much hotter than expected, and the impacts were felt throughout the bond market and the US dollar complex. Core CPI came in at 0.4% - hotter than the 0.3% m/m estimates....

US inflation came in well ahead of expectations, prompting the market to dramatically reprice the prospect of rate cuts. Potential tariffs add upside risk to inflation in coming quarters, but there...

We finished 2024 with a slightly soft reading, but we began 2025 with a hot reading. Now, my admonition last month about the volatility of December data applies also to January data, although less so...

With Trump ordering a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US, trade tensions are inching closer to Europe. We take a closer look at how European policymakers could react. Spoiler...

The highly anticipated U.S. January CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.9% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.1%. Investors should brace for...