Market Overview

Many investors seem to be missing the gold rally. The chart below exhibits two lines: the black one shows the total known gold ETF holdings, while the brown line represents the gold spot price. Gold...

Reign Of Tariffs I: Losing Confidence Does President Donald Trump want a recession? He is going to get one if he continues to pursue his chaotic tariff policies. Consider the following: 1. CFOs &...

Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective. To wit: “While Trump’s tariffs...

It wasn’t that long ago that used car prices were soaring as the production of new cars was crimped due to Covid-related supply line shortages. Since then, used car prices have stabilized as the...

Building long-term wealth is not just about earning money—it’s about making smart financial decisions that allow your wealth to grow consistently over time. The financial markets offer many...

It's time to talk about an unpleasant subject: Is depression possible? We aren't forecasting a depression, just worrying about one. And we suspect you are too. We continue to believe that the economy...

Hot inflation and cooling consumer spending are trends that are likely to be intensified by President Trump's aggressive moves on tariffs and government spending cuts. Stagflation fears are rising...

Following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, there was a massive surge in media headlines stating “stagflation.” The media’s stagflation panic is unsurprising as it elicits memories of the late...

Here’s something most people don’t realize right away: Trading is not about luck, gut feelings, or being right all the time. It’s a numbers game—and that’s exactly what makes it so powerful. Because...

Donald Trump appears to have some sort of fantasy about what America is. I share his pride in this country as it was in the WWII era and maybe beyond, into the 1970s. I am, shall we say mature of age...

Given the fear as represented in investor surveys and various sentiment gauges a couple of weeks ago, one would think the recent market drawdown was significant. As a testimony to the concern,...

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds’ Nowcast economic forecasts predict...

New data published on Monday reaffirms that the US economy is still growing, and the odds remain low that a recession has started or is imminent. The rapidly changing state of tariffs could change...

The graph below, courtesy of Jeff Weniger, shows that since 1990, spikes in the University of Michigan (UM) consumer inflation expectation index to around 5% have preceded inflation declines. As he...