Market Overview

Growth remains on track to soften in the first quarter, based on the median GDP nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.Although recession risk is still low, output looks set...

Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly...

Trading Tip - Don't Do THIS! It is the #1 Worst Type of Trading Behavior

A little discussion about this thing we call “inflation” after the January CPI reportA vast majority of people see inflation as rising prices, wages, and ‘pushed’ costs within...

This is the reason that serious people don’t choose a trend length that happens to fit with their narrative.For the last few months, supposedly serious economists have crowed about how the...

Today's spotlight is on the release of crucial U.S. inflation data, anticipated to show a decline in both the overall Consumer Price Index and the core CPI Market expectations include a decrease in...

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the big number to watch this week. Here's an important trading tip on US Dollar & US Inflation Relationship

Keynes once said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.I love this quote because it speaks about the power of narratives, and my humble adaption of that would...

The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations...

So, it was another rather boring day, with the S&P 500 finishing flat, rates up, the dollar up, and implied volatility somewhat higher. This has been a very odd earnings season.Last night, I noted...

It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.Yet the forecast still...

I must say that writing these days is a real challenge, and yesterday was one of those days, mostly because it was just more of the same with the troubling three continuing to lead the charge.There is...

It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...

We wrote this four-part inflation series in response to the graph below, implying that prices are on the same inflation roller coaster ride as the 1970s. If you have read the first three parts of this...