Market Overview

Recession odds have climbed considerably since Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and the latest FOMC meeting. However, the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, as higher...

The Consumer Price Index eased more than expected in March, providing fresh evidence that pricing pressure has peaked and inflation remains on track to decelerate further in the months ahead. The core...

Gold prices are on the move after the US CPI data has finally eased off and printed the reading of 5% against the expectations of 5.1%. Traders have taken this news as an indicator that the Fed is...

Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the...

Despite media headlines, podcasts, and broadcasts suggesting “doom and gloom” lurks around the corner, investor bullishness has increased markedly sincetheOctober lows. This isn’t...

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared. Yield curve dynamics represent...

Assessing US recession risk isn’t getting any easier, but when it comes to cutting through the noise, I continue to rely on combining models for the single-best tool in the toolkit. To...

The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The...

Learn 4 essential tips that can make the difference between profits and losses

As the Fed tightens monetary policy, a banking crisis is historically the first evidence that something was breaking. As noted recently in “Not QE,” “Last week, amid a rash of bank...

After the US regional banking crisis and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse sent shockwaves through global markets, concerns over the risk of contagion rippled across the financial sector. Fears may...

Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look at the data set in...

An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic and review the charts. The second largest U.S....

Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the U.S. economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a...