Market Overview

The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated. By some accounts,...

The Fed has recently released the hypothetical scenarios for its 2023 supervisory stress test. This test is conducted annually to show how the banks are likely to perform in a recessionary...

The economic rebound in the second half of 2022 looks challenged in early estimates for first quarter GDP, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. US output is on...

Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. As noted by Yahoo Finance last Friday: “The...

The February Fed minutes may reveal that rates have to go much higher. It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will still be full of market-moving data. The Fed minutes will be released on...

Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a...

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Higher-for-Longer Narrative Hurts Bond LongsMonthly US inflation came in line with expectations in January. After hesitating, rates went resolutely higher. Given the lack of a clear signal in the CPI...

Despite coming in below the previous reading, U.S. inflation data was slightly above expectations The initial market reaction was a mixed bag However, it is likely that inflation could fall sharply...

The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals. On...

Sunday’s Super Bowl had a few notable “firsts,” including the first featuring two brothers on opposing teams, but it will undoubtedly be remembered as a major turning point in sports...

What a difference a rally makes. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up more than 6%. Not bad considering the doom and gloom from Wall Street forecasters at the end of 2022. Recall how strategists in...

Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The...

Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023. In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...