Market Overview

There are several reasons for adopting a cautious near-term outlook for markets, and reflation risk is arguably at the top of the list. That’s old news, but it’s a topic that’s keenly in focus after...

As widely expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps, to 4.25-4.50%, at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Moreover, they intimated that after cutting rates by 1% since September, they are likely to be...

We got another 25bp policy rate cut from the Fed, but updated projections and Chair Powell’s press conference confirm that the Fed is going to be much more cautious next year with sticky inflation...

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the Fed’s positioning regarding future rate cuts caught the market off guard. Looking back, it was somewhat obvious. Earlier yesterday, I shared...

The Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting is set to be a pivotal moment for markets. While a 25bps rate cut is a foregone conclusion, recent data showing sticky inflation and a resilient economy...

The market is confident that a 25-basis-points reduction in interest rate is a done-deal for today’s policy announcement, based on Fed funds futures. But the question of whether the Fed should cut is...

It was another weak day for the markets. The S&P 500 closed lower by 39 basis points, but the weakness was more pronounced in the RSP equal-weight index, down 80 basis points. The Dow dropped for...

Several updated nowcasts for US economic activity in the fourth quarter have been revised sharply higher recently, but the median estimate barely changed, based on the several data points from a...

The US Dollar Index is up over 6% this year, almost all attributable to a post-election surge. As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S. economy continues...

Last Thursday, we wrote, "After today's PPI, we won't be surprised if Fed officials plant a story in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend titled something like "Fed Officials Might Vote To Pause...

Look up in the sky. It's a bird. It's a plane. It's Superman! Nope, it's lots of drones flying over New Jersey, New York, and Maryland typically between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. They are reportedly the...

Sunday's Commentary touched on the divergence between robust economic growth in the U.S. and near-recessionary conditions in Canada. We highlighted the importance of this to U.S. investors because of...

First Comes The Fed, Then Santa Last week, we discussed that the risk to the markets was the annual portfolio rebalancing process. To wit: “With the year-end approaching, portfolio managers need to...

Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” ended yesterday in Vancouver. The extraordinary singer started this sixth concert tour in Glendale, Arizona on March 17, 2023. The tour consisted of 149 shows spanning...