Market Overview

Focus shifts to the key inflation data due today This data will play a pivotal role in deciding the year-end rally's fate Decline in shelter inflation has continued, increasing odds of a...

Stocks finished yesterday's session lower ahead of CPI report. Expectations are for headline CPI to increase by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, down from September’s increase of 0.4%...

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Investor sentiment has surpassed its historical average of 37.5% as the stock market bounced back from the treasury crisis Investors now wonder whether the rally will sustain into yearend With that in...

U.S. unemployment hits a two-year high at 3.9% Sahm's rule suggests potential recession, as the quarterly moving average of the unemployment rate nears the 0.5% threshold Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies...

Stocks had a big rally day on Friday, but most of the week was a real struggle. The rally on Friday didn’t help the equal-weight S&P 500 or Russell 2000 finish positive for the week, despite...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators. Each month, economists, the media, and investors pour over various mainstream...

Investors should brace for more volatility next week amid growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. U.S. CPI inflation, the latest retail sales figures, and a read on...

Stocks had a boring day; I think the last three days add to the idea that last week’s rally was driven by options market positioning, and the declining market breadth supports that idea even...

It’s important, I think, that I occasionally remind readers of a fact that is supported by overwhelming quantitative evidence, and yet virtually ignored by a wide majority of economists (and...

The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by...

The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: "Here’s why economists don’t expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create inflation." In hindsight, so many...

A historical pattern suggests that years following negative performances in August, September, and October often see strong November and December gains in the stock market. But, Geopolitical turmoil...

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