Market Overview

The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business-conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings.Soon after this monthly survey data was released yesterday (Jan....

Appreciating Apollo’s graph below, comparing recent inflation to multiple bouts of inflation of the late 1960s, 70s, and early 80s is of utmost importance for investors.Sustained levels of high...

Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 dropping by 40 bps, as the VIX surged, rates rose, and the dollar strengthened.A good portion of the move came today after Fed governor Chris Waller...

The January effect, named for the perceived market anomaly where stock returns in January are higher than in other months, has been a subject of interest since it was first written about in...

The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...

US markets will be closed today, making for another short week. This will be an option expiration week with the VIX on Wednesday and Monthly stock OPEX on Friday.This will open a window for increased...

I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time.Of course, as an inflation...

After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...

Watch below my quick take on this morning's US inflation and jobless claims report and what it means for stocks and the US dollar trades.

The December CPI report is due on Thursday at 8:30AM ET. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 3.2% and core CPI is forecast to climb 3.8%. While the rate of inflation is declining, it’s not...

The S&P 500 finished the day higher by about 60 bps, while the S&P 500 Equal Weighted finished the day higher by just 17 bps. It again shows how the indexes are diverging and returning to...

Market narratives have been around for ages. However, the internet and, more recently, social media allow narratives to spread much quicker. Accordingly, they have become more frequent and potent...

Stocks gapped lower, while the equal-weight and small-cap indexes didn’t recover much. The S&P 500 finished the day lower by around 15 bps.The index was able to fill the morning’s...

Much of what is thought and believed about the stock market is based upon fallacy and a lack of understanding, which was easily seen in the comments section of one of my recent articles.It seems that...