Market Overview

Late last year, I was asked on a podcast what one fear I had for 2023 that was out-of-consensus and not expected by markets, but a non-zero probability which if it came to pass would have a huge...

Stocks finished lower as risk-off seemed to be a theme yesterday, with oil prices slumping below $70. Oil has been a harbinger of all things these days, and the best thing that can happen with oil, at...

The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. But the bearish forecasts have fallen flat as output has remained positive. GDP surged in the third...

After hiking rates by 5.25% since March 2022, the Fed is in a wait-and-see period, commonly deemed a pause. Since the Fed started hiking rates, inflation has declined meaningfully but remains...

Stocks finished flat, with the S&P 500 falling just six bps. Most of the weaknesses yesterday came in the equal-weighted S&P 500, with the RSP ETF falling by almost 85 bps.Meanwhile, we saw...

Recent disinflation trends have made rate cuts more likely next year And, tech companies may be beneficiaries of the new bull market So, we will take a look at three tech stocks that are likely to...

Who are the biggest whales in the bond market?If you go around and ask this question, most people would tell you that’s either the Fed or foreign Central Banks like the Bank of Japan or the...

I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing”...

Financial “wisdom” is said to be cyclical rather than cumulative, but that’s unfair. At least in the dominion of portfolio management and design, academics and money managers have...

“For me, context is the key – from that comes the understanding of everything.” - Abstract Artist Kenneth Noland. That holds true for us as well! Proper context is required to...

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime partner at Berkshire Hathaway, passed away peacefully at 99, leaving an indelible mark on the company's success. Acknowledging Munger's vital role, Warren...

It was another pretty slow day on Tuesday, with most of the action in the bond market, with the 2-year falling by 15 bps, resulting in the yield curve steepening with the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield...

The bungee jumper doesn’t just bounce once.Stated in a more high-falutin’ way, perturbed systems normally don’t converge straight back to equilibrium. Obviously, the 2020-2021...

The recession that was widely predicted when the year began has only been postponed, some forecasters warn. The US is likely to contract at some point in the new year, runs the updated outlook. Maybe,...