Market Overview

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. Following the trend of the last three months, the inflation rate increased 0.2% on a...

CPI came in as expected yesterday, but that didn’t stop long-end rates from rising, with the 30-year up six bps and the 10-year up two bps. The dollar index also continued to melt up after the data,...

I said two months ago that I didn’t think the Fed should ease, but they would anyway. And they did, by cutting overnight rates 50bps. Then last month I said: “Getting rates back to neutral, around...

Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping. The current...

The closely watched U.S. October CPI report comes out today. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.6% and core CPI is forecast to increase 3.3%. Investors should brace for possible market...

Like Icarus, the stock market may be flying too close to the sun these days. The mood seems euphoric, with many headlines calling for further gains and analysts’ price targets reaching absurd levels....

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To...

Stocks ended the day mostly mixed. The technology sector was down, while small caps and financials were higher, leading to the S&P 500 finishing near flat. Dollar The bond market was closed...

Maslow’s hierarchy of needs was a groundbreaking concept when it first appeared in 1943. American psychologist Abraham Maslow argued that certain basic needs—food, water, shelter, etc.—must be met...

Most traders wait for a pullback to enter. I don’t. Instead, I focus on timing my entries in specific trading windows for the Asia and New York sessions. Why? Because I want momentum on my side.  In...

What if the inflation problem has not actually been effectively addressed? It could have important implications for not only monetary but fiscal policy in the near future. This may be one reason...

This weekend, we will examine some of the long-term market cycles across various assets to help set the stage for the coming months as we begin to look toward 2025. All charts below come from...

It’s difficult to count the number of mainstream macro theories that we’ve debunked over the past few years. Many long-used relationships and correlations have been upended by record monetary and...

Donald Trump won the election by a clearer and wider margin than what was expected, and the Republicans gained control of the Senate. In the short-term, we believe this outcome is likely to be...