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In fact, with patience it could turn out to be like shooting contrary fish in a barrel. The stock market rally – which NFTRH had anticipated a year ago on a larger basis and since October of...
"You can't fight the Fed" is a famous refrain repeated by most market participants throughout the years. Unfortunately, it is just not true. The truer statement is that "you can't fight the market."...
The outlook for the US economy is on track to close 2023 with a relatively upbeat outlook for the fourth quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The official Q4 GDP...
Stocks finished the day higher by around 1% yesterday, rebounding some from Wednesday's sharp sell-off; this made it an inside day. We have often seen inside days when the day following a big move is...
Inflation in the UK fell abruptly to 3.9% in November, the lowest since September 2021. Inflation in the UK surprisingly fell more than anticipated to 3.9% in November, marking the lowest reading for...
Markets are becoming increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024. The first cut is expected at the March 20 monetary policy meeting. Fed funds futures are...
Stocks rallied again, achieving even more extended levels, with the S&P 500 RSI rising to just shy of 82 while remaining above the oper Bollinger band. Again, this is reaching extreme overbought...
The Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged and made no changes to its forward guidance, pushing the yen down against the dollar. But we think the shift in tone is clear and major...
Months ago, most economists dismissed claims that Jerome Powell and his team of policymakers at the Federal Reserve would pull off the so-called “soft landing.” But after recent events and...
US economic activity is still on track to slow after strong growth in the third quarter, but recession risk remains low, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Next month’s...
What is the “wealth effect,” and why is it important? It is a great question and reminded me of “A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Colosseum.“ The hysterical play by Craig Sodaro features a...
The seasonal party continues but, the danger is ahead The strategy of how to navigate what is ahead has been generally covered in NFTRH and with post-FOMC clarity, it is being fine-tuned further, into...
We just got our January 2019 moment: the Powell dovish pivot is here. Contrary to popular belief, a dovish pivot doesn’t mean the Fed is already cutting rates. Instead, it means the necessary...
A month ago the trend in global markets remained bullish despite the fallout from a correction that started mid-summer, based on several sets of ETF pairs. Following yesterday’s upbeat Federal Reserve...
Instead of holding their cards back, the Fed decided to go all in today and show their hand. I don’t play poker anymore, but the only time I would go all in in Texas Hold’em was when I...