Market Overview

Human stupidity is the one thing you can rely on in financial markets. I recently read a great piece by Joe Wiggins at Behavioral Investment, which discusses why “Investing is hard.” The entire...

The S&P 500 fell on Thursday, March 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak – a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%. A “bear market,”...

In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue...

Look, I know that traders sometimes think their job is to overreact. And media folks benefit from overreacting. And political strategists have been genetically bred to overreacting. But a bit of...

Last week, we covered recession odds based on Trump admin policies, tariff focus, and DOGE revelations. Since then, Polymarket odds for the US recession moved slightly up, from 39 to 40% for...

The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt. The White...

Investors are on edge ahead of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today, which economists expect to show a slight cooling in inflation. Forecasts point to a 3.2% year-over-year increase,...

As new presidential terms go, this one’s off to a rocky start for the economic outlook, thanks largely to disruptive tariff plans that risk triggering a global trade war. Perhaps most surprising is...

Last week, we discussed the more extreme levels of bearishness that have gripped the markets as of late. “In other words, while the media scrambled to align reasons with the sell-off, the correction...

I’m sure this week will be interesting, given the CPI and PPI reports. I’m sure the administration will have plenty of on-again and off-again policy statements about something. The one thing that...

DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks. Narratives about the U.S. economic outlook have darkened in the past month as concerns about...

Many believe Winston Churchill coined the phrase: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Others think it was President Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanual, who said, “You never want to let a...

The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a...

Stocks finished the day sharply lower, just one day ahead of the most important jobs report ever. Yes, that’s right—the VIX 1-day rose and closed at 31.2 yesterday. The market seems to think today’s...