S&P 500: Wall Street Poised for Year-End Blast as Shutdown Progress Looms

Global markets appear to be setting up for a powerful year-end surge. The breakthrough in Washington, where the US Senate has advanced a funding bill to end the longest government shutdown in history, has given investors the signal they have been waiting for.

The shutdown, now stretching to around 40 days, has weighed heavily on sentiment and disrupted the flow of government data. Yet the latest developments in Congress have brought renewed optimism, and the reaction has been swift. 

Stocks in Asia, Europe, and the US futures market all moved higher on Monday as traders positioned for a potential global relief rally.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained about 1%, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both rising roughly 1–1.6%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped close to 3%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained around 1.5–1.6%. US futures also turned higher, with Nasdaq contracts up more than 1% and S&P 500 futures around 0.8% higher.

Beyond equities, other markets confirmed the shift in mood. Bitcoin traded above $106,000 after rising roughly 4–5% in 24 hours, and gold advanced to just over $4,070 a troy ounce. The two assets moving higher together show investors are embracing risk while still maintaining some protection.

Markets are looking for any excuse to buy. After weeks of political gridlock and concern about lofty tech valuations, this progress in Washington could be the spark that sets off a decisive rally. 

Traders want functionality and certainty. When they sense even a hint of stability, momentum tends to accelerate fast.

The backdrop is already strong. The S&P 500 has gained about 15% so far in 2025, and the Nasdaq is up close to 20%, both sitting just below record highs. This performance tells us investors have continued to buy through noise and uncertainty. With inflation easing, liquidity holding up, and corporate earnings largely resilient, the fundamentals are there. What has been missing is political direction — and this could provide it.

For more than a month, the shutdown has acted as a psychological brake. Confidence has been constrained not just by the lack of progress in Washington but by the absence of reliable government data. 

Now that the Senate has taken a concrete step toward reopening, traders are moving quickly to get ahead of the curve. This is pent-up optimism being released into the market all at once.

The rally is already showing signs of broadening. AI and tech have powered most of this year’s gains, but a credible resolution to the shutdown can trigger a rotation into sectors that benefit from stability. Financials, industrials, and energy are all positioned to move higher as investors look beyond short-term politics and toward continuity. This is not about a one-day bounce — it’s about investors preparing for a more predictable policy environment.

Bitcoin’s move is also worth noting. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has increasingly become a barometer for confidence. Its rise alongside equities indicates that investors are re-engaging with risk across asset classes rather than hiding from it. Meanwhile, gold’s steady climb shows that investors still want insurance. 

The combination of the two — confidence and caution — signals a healthy rather than speculative rally.

The market’s response fits a wider pattern we’ve seen over the past year. Despite volatility, investors have been willing to look through the noise because the economic backdrop in the US remains strong. Consumer spending has been stable, AI and tech investment continue to drive productivity, and companies are operating with robust balance sheets. These forces have underpinned equity resilience throughout 2025.

What comes next depends entirely on follow-through in Washington. The Senate’s progress is encouraging, but investors now expect delivery. The bill must still clear its final hurdles before reaching the president’s desk. If the process stalls, the rally will lose steam quickly. Markets are rewarding results, not rhetoric.

If, however, the shutdown is fully resolved this week, it could unleash one of the strongest year-end rallies in recent memory. Wall Street has been sitting on the edge of new highs for weeks, and the return of political functionality could provide the final push.

The timing matters. November and December are typically positive months for equities as fund managers rebalance portfolios and performance chasers move back into the market. Add a major political breakthrough to that seasonal trend, and the ingredients are in place for a powerful run into year-end.

The world’s largest economy drives sentiment across the globe. Once investors believe the shutdown is truly ending, they will treat it as confirmation that the system is working again — and that will change positioning fast. 

The relief rally is already forming. The only question now is whether Washington can keep the momentum alive long enough to turn optimism into conviction.

If it does, 2025 could end not in hesitation, but with a bang.