ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages...

Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...

The ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, but the job vacancy statistics are holding up fairly well, and inflation pressures remain elevated. Fed Chair Powell, speaking in...

The inflation rate in the eurozone ticked up slightly to 2% on higher energy prices, but core inflation remained stable at 2.3%. Inflationary pressures have clearly weakened as wage growth is coming...

The US dollar continues to grind lower in a move probably now best categorised as an orderly dollar bear trend. After a structurally driven decline of the dollar in April, its losses over the last...

Oil prices are under pressure as expectations grow that OPEC+ will announce another large supply increase for August Energy – Attention Shifts to OPEC+ Oil prices edged marginally lower yesterday, a...

Monetary easing is filtering through the lending channel more slowly, with borrowing growth among businesses and households showing signs of levelling off. Uncertainty in the economy seems to have...

A four-day week in US markets due to Independence Day will offer plenty to judge whether EUR/USD can attempt a move to 1.20 in the near term. Focus will be on the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful...

Big isn’t beautiful when it comes to government debt, but tariffs and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) help to plug the hole left by President Trump’s latest fiscal bill. The net effect...

Trying to work out when the Fed will cut US interest rates - and by how much - is somewhat preoccupying financial markets. Watch what ING's James Knightley thinks. Are You Thinking What We’re...

Yesterday’s US data was a mixed bag, failing to unequivocally endorse the recent speculation on Fed rate cuts. Today, focus will be on the PCE, personal spending and more Fedspeak. EUR/USD has its...

With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel appearing to hold, the oil market’s attention is shifting back to tariffs and other risks Energy – Focus Shifts From the Middle East to Tariffs Oil prices...

The US dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate...

We expect the US dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer...

Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell's...

Oil prices are edging higher this morning following a two-day decline, as the market evaluates the easing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices have fallen as the Iran-Israel ceasefire is reducing...