ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Steady inflation confirms that the eurozone is in Lagarde’s “good place” at the moment. Expect inflation to remain around target for the months ahead The European Central Bank should savour the...

The US has announced new 'reciprocal' tariffs (Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand are notable targets) while keeping the base rate at 10%. The muted market impact signals lingering expectations of...

After an already eventful week, markets will have more to digest on Friday. The US payroll numbers will be the highlight, although the potential spillovers to other markets have lessened....

If the FX options market is any guide, and once this week's big event risks are out of the way, investors are pricing a quiet August for markets. Low levels of volatility inevitably draw focus to the...

The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2% in May, with the number of unemployed people trending down by 62,000 people. Even though economic growth slowed again in the second quarter and...

Despite two dissenting votes, the Fed delivered a broadly hawkish hold, with Chair Powell remaining firm on his inflation call and forcing markets to trim September cut bets. The US dollar’s rally...

Comex copper plunged by more than 19% in minutes after President Trump excluded refined metal from his planned import tariff. The 19% fall on Wednesday was the largest intraday fall on record. Prices...

Two FOMC members voted for a 25bp rate cut, having openly stated that they agreed with the President there was a case for lower borrowing costs. However, the rest of the committee are reluctant with...

The 0.1% growth compared to the first quarter shows resilience despite US trade volatility. While short-term risks to the outlook remain high, improvements in sentiment provide encouraging signs for...

Consensus expects zero GDP growth from the eurozone in the second quarter, but the outlook remains positive, supporting our bearish take on rates. The Fed will most likely hold today, which could...

We expect another leg lower in EUR/USD today, driven by an above-consensus 3.3% quarterly annualised US GDP, which should come in stark contrast with stagnant eurozone numbers. After that, we expect...

Oil prices extended their rally yesterday as President Trump confirmed that he will give Russia 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine Energy – Trump Gives Russia 10 Days to Reach Peace Deal Oil...

The biggest takeaway from yesterday's sell-off in the euro was that some of this year's highest conviction trades were becoming a little stale. EUR/USD has already had a decent correction even before...

Oil prices rallied after President Trump said he would shorten the deadline for Russia to come to a deal with Ukraine to end the war, raising supply concerns Energy – Trump Shortens the Window for...

US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announce an agreement on a trade deal, bringing 15% tariffs on most European goods exported to the US The US and the...

The announcement of a US-EU trade deal has lifted equity futures on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors are more worried about a bubble now than a recession. The deal takes some pressure out of the...