ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Oil prices are under pressure this morning after OPEC+ increased supply by more than expected for August Energy – OPEC+ Goes With a Larger Supply Hike ICE Brent is trading lower this morning after...

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day trade reprieve is ending. Tariff noise is back, but does it really matter? US inflation has stayed surprisingly benign and the economy is holding up, despite the...

Starting at 12:01 AM EST on 9 July, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% will be reinstated unless formal trade agreements, such as the US/UK agreement, or high-level deals like the one between...

In spite of a better-than-expected US June jobs report and a 10/12bp jump in short-dated US interest rates, the US dollar is barely changed from its soft levels seen this time yesterday. Seemingly,...

A stronger-than-expected June jobs report indicates no Federal Reserve rate cut before September despite the President’s demands. Nonetheless, households are becoming more pessimistic about...

UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously...

Today's FX market focus is squarely on the June US jobs report. Does a consensus +110k release provide cover for Fed Chair Powell to continue resisting pressure to cut rates? Or will a weak number...

The trade deal between the US and Vietnam boosted oil prices. However, with OPEC+ set to decide on August output levels, the move higher could be short-lived. In addition, 9 July marks the end of the...

The unemployment rate increased from 6.2% to 6.3% in May. This increase was mainly driven by a jump in unemployment in Italy, but overall, the labour market remains strong with significant shortages...

Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a US dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch...

The ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, but the job vacancy statistics are holding up fairly well, and inflation pressures remain elevated. Fed Chair Powell, speaking in...

The inflation rate in the eurozone ticked up slightly to 2% on higher energy prices, but core inflation remained stable at 2.3%. Inflationary pressures have clearly weakened as wage growth is coming...

The US dollar continues to grind lower in a move probably now best categorised as an orderly dollar bear trend. After a structurally driven decline of the dollar in April, its losses over the last...

Oil prices are under pressure as expectations grow that OPEC+ will announce another large supply increase for August Energy – Attention Shifts to OPEC+ Oil prices edged marginally lower yesterday, a...

Monetary easing is filtering through the lending channel more slowly, with borrowing growth among businesses and households showing signs of levelling off. Uncertainty in the economy seems to have...

A four-day week in US markets due to Independence Day will offer plenty to judge whether EUR/USD can attempt a move to 1.20 in the near term. Focus will be on the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful...