ING Economic and Financial Analysis

US President Donald Trump appears to be advancing efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine truce. Markets are pricing in cautious optimism: oil, dollar, and the Swiss franc all came under pressure. CHF...

Oil prices have not reacted to President Trump slapping an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, possibly believing there's still room for negotiation The Potential Impact...

Sterling markets remain sensitive to US dynamics and risk pricing in a too dovish path of easing by the Bank of England. Any tweaks to the pace or composition of quantitative tightening would not...

We're changing our call on the Fed. The pressure to cut rates is intensifying as the US jobs market and the growth story are no longer looking quite so solid. While prices will rise due to tariffs,...

'Tariff' may be the most beautiful word in Donald Trump's dictionary. And while tariffs will continue to dominate headlines for the rest of the year, let me introduce my economic term of the summer:...

President Trump hinted that Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett and two others are leading the race for the next Fed Chair and might be announced soon after Governor Adriana Kugler’s early exit. We think the...

The oil market is awaiting greater clarity on the potential for secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, with President Trump’s deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal scheduled for...

Both manufacturing and service sector ISM headline readings came in weaker than any analysts were forecasting. Business activity is cooling and employment is contracting in both surveys. Price...

The US 3yr auction tailed slightly on Tuesday. The excuse is it's rich compared to where it was. But it's actually not rich versus the market expectations for the funds rate. The 10yr auction is up...

One could be forgiven for thinking that President Trump has now turned his attention to disassembling the BRICS political grouping. India, Russia and Brazil are squarely in focus currently. And...

The ratchet down in the US curve should morph to a steeper curve, and we think it should ultimately be from both ends. In the eurozone, we find that positive growth surprises have the capacity to...

There's now a much higher probability that the US Fed will start cutting interest rates soon. ING's James Knightley says our thinking has started to change US Interest Rate Cuts Could Come Sooner...

Following Friday's soft US jobs report, the US dollar looks to stay offered this week. The firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, after President Trump accused the agency of manipulating...

It’s been a big day in FX markets where a wholly weak US jobs report has pulled the rug from under Jerome Powell’s hawkish stoicism and stopped the US dollar’s rally in its tracks. It looks highly...

Oil prices are trading weaker this morning after OPEC+ agreed on another large supply hike for September Energy – OPEC+ Goes with Another Large Supply Hike for September There was little in the way...

Trade deals, tariff fireworks, data drama, this week has had it all. Here are four key takeaways from this whirlwind week – and what we’ll be watching as the story unfolds in the days to...