ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Not leaving the good place, yet. The European Central Bank just decided to keep interest rates on holdNo Change on Macro AssessmentNever disappoint market expectations. This might have been one of the...

Despite expectations of a large surplus in 2026, OPEC+ has continued to ramp up supply, which should put downward pressure on oil prices in the months aheadOPEC+ Surprises With Another Supply...

A lot is going on. In the eurozone, it’s all about spreads, particularly French ones. It comes against an underpinning of mild upward pressure on longer core rates, but without much conviction,...

After a subdued PPI print yesterday, the chances of today’s US core CPI exceeding the consensus 0.3% MoM are lower. We expect firmer conviction on three Fed cuts by year-end after today’s...

We nor markets expect a rate cut by the European Central Bank, but we do take a more bullish view on the short end of the Bund curve. Downside risks from (geo)politics continue to loom in the...

After benchmarking with state unemployment insurance tax records, the Bureau for Labor Statistics has acknowledged that it overestimated employment in the US by 911,000 in the 12M to March 2025. Thus,...

Risk assets continue to rally even as new geopolitical risks emerge. Ultimately, this is a bearish story for the US dollar, but for today, focus will be on the August US PPI data and speeches in...

The unfolding saga out of France probably blows over. There have been many before. But at the same time, we need to be vigilant. The market discount certainly sniffs a growing issue. We’ll...

Gold prices reached another record on Tuesday morning amid surging bets of a Federal Reserve rate cutEnergy – Saudi Could Lower the Premium for October DeliveriesOil prices were stable in the...

In quiet markets, the US dollar is a little softer than we had expected. The highlight today will be the preliminary annual revision to US jobs data, where the annual number up to March could be...

The primary victim of French political turmoil is fiscal consolidation efforts, but for now any market concerns are largely contained to French bonds. We think spreads could still widen with new...

Oil climbed higher this morning after reports that the European Union is exploring new sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies as part of its latest measures to end the war in Ukraine. A...

Political developments in France and Japan are limiting the euro’s and yen’s chance to rally against the softer US dollar. The calendar is surprisingly busy this week with key events such...

Another soft jobs report is intensifying calls for meaningful Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Consumers are already worried about squeezed spending power from tariffs and are now increasingly...

The US inflation report next week - the last key data point before the next Federal Reserve meeting on 17 September - should be no barrier to a rate cut. In Central and Eastern Europe, inflation...