ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US dollar's bearish march has continued after the Middle East crisis brought scattered, short-lived support. EUR/USD has broken 1.170 and is setting its sights on 1.20. The recent short-term rate...

We expect the US dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer...

Markets seem to be trusting the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and the US dollar is back to testing its lows. Expect US data to play a bigger role from here, especially since Fed Chair Powell's...

Oil prices are edging higher this morning following a two-day decline, as the market evaluates the easing tensions in the Middle East. Gold prices have fallen as the Iran-Israel ceasefire is reducing...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not only coming under pressure from the President to cut interest rates, but from members of his own team. Nonetheless, with the economy still growing and adding jobs, plus...

Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, and markets had already started pricing out geopolitical risk yesterday as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the US appeared measured in size. The US...

The eurozone composite PMI came in at 50.2 in June – similar to May – indicating a stagnating economy after a robust first quarter. Concerns about escalation in the Middle East add a new downside...

Since the US targeted Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, supply risks for energy markets have increased significantly amid uncertainty about how Iran will retaliate Moving Closer Towards...

The US dollar is trading higher this morning after the US strikes on Iran. But the moves still look quite small in FX, which suggests lingering reluctance to unwind strategic USD shorts, as well as...

The US dollar has lost some momentum as oil prices corrected slightly lower, and markets still struggle to gauge the probability of the US joining the Middle East conflict. EUR/USD may stabilise now...

We expect a 25bp cut in Switzerland, and holds in the UK, Norway and Turkey. But the main driver for FX remains the Middle East situation and implications for oil prices. The US dollar is likely to...

Markets are now speculating on a US military intervention in Iran, and oil prices are jumping again. This has triggered a renewed safe-haven appeal for the US dollar, although this appears dependent...

Energy markets continue to monitor escalating Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on any signs that Iran may seek to disrupt crude flows across the Strait of Hormuz Energy – Oil Near Five-month High The...

The main story in FX remains the rapidly evolving Middle East conflict. If oil prices correct further due to perceived limited supply risk, the US dollar can follow suit and move lower. However, some...

Oil and gold are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran following earlier optimism that the Israel-Iran conflict would remain contained Energy – Oil Remains on...

Geopolitical risks failed to update over the weekend and will remain central in FX price action. The US dollar's rebound has been lacklustre, and while some support is warranted by the current market...