ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Crude oil prices declined for a second straight session this morning as the market remains focused on surplus expectations. A huge inventory draw in the US and interest rate cut by the US Federal...

We interpret yesterday’s Fed decision as a net negative for the US dollar, and think that some ’sell the fact’ and positioning readjustment have exacerbated the US dollar rally...

We got the 25bp cut. And it was dovish. Maybe not as dovish as some would like, but it’s reasonably clear that there are more cuts coming. Rates are up, though. On both ends. And the curve...

The Fed cut the policy rate 25bp as expected. They think three more cuts will be enough to boost growth and prompt a revival in the jobs market, but the market is skeptical. We look for four more 25bp...

The oil market is under pressure in the European morning, even as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reports a drop in US crude oil inventoryEnergy – API Reports Oil Inventory DrawsAfter...

All eyes are on tonight’s Fed meeting, where a 25bp rate cut is widely expected. The US dollar has been selling off ahead of this event, but there are a few risks. For example, we could see...

It’s tough to envisage a hawkish 25bp cut, else why do it in the first place. A dovish 25bp cut is far more likely. If Chair Powell wants to be hawkish, then better to deliver a 50bp cut. Long...

Risk sentiment remains resilient and largely unaffected by factors such as French politics. While this should support EUR rates grinding higher and spreads – outside of France – still...

Gold continues to rally to fresh record highs amid growing expectations that the US Fed will cut rates this week. Here’s what’s happening in the commodity spaceMetals – Gold Crosses...

The US dollar is drifting lower ahead of tomorrow evening’s FOMC meeting. Even the market’s favourite high-yield currency play, the Turkish lira, got a lift following news of a delay in a...

The eurozone’s trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the...

Oil prices extended last week’s gains this morning following the latest attacks by Ukraine on refineries and ports in RussiaEnergy – Robust Oil Demand From ChinaThe oil market rose for a...

In a quiet start to the week for FX markets, EUR/USD is trading steady despite French debt being downgraded on Friday night by Fitch. That downgrade has already been priced into French debt markets,...

In next week’s round of central bank meetings, we’re looking for 25bp cuts from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the Bank of England should hit pause, though any...

The International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to see a large surplus in the oil market, as demand remains slow while supply is returning only graduallyEnergy – IEA Boosts its Oil Supply...

The combined effect of a hawkish ECB and US data (consensus core CPI and spike in jobless claims) has sent the EUR:USD short-term rate differential to the tightest in a year. Spot has only partly...