ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US dollar has traded on the soft side ahead of Wednesday's 'liberation day', when universal tariffs are due to be announced by the US. We think some stabilisation in the data is needed for a...

Gold rose to a fresh record high at the start of the week as concerns of a global trade war bolster safe haven demand while copper continues its retreat from a nine-month high amid broader risk off...

Hot inflation and cooling consumer spending are trends that are likely to be intensified by President Trump's aggressive moves on tariffs and government spending cuts. Stagflation fears are rising...

FX markets are in a holding pattern ahead of next week's reciprocal tariffs from the US. Some of the recent europhoria is waning, and today sterling may see some downside risks from the Spring...

US copper prices rise to record highs amid rising tariff risks, while oil briefly slides on Russia- Ukraine ceasefire hopes Energy – Russia-Ukraine Maritime Ceasefire Oil prices slid after Russia and...

Norway's surprise spike in core and headline inflation in February suggests Norges Bank may keep rates on hold despite previously signalling that a cut was likely at the 27 March meeting. Market...

US consumer confidence data is released today and is anticipated to show further deterioration. We are slightly more pessimistic than consensus expecting 93.0, and we mostly see downside risks for...

Risk assets rose amid suggestions that the Trump administration would take a more measured approach with tariffs. Oil got an additional boost after the US announced secondary tariffs on buyers of...

Oil prices are well supported by sanction risks following tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports last week Energy – Speculative Moves Crude oil saw its largest weekly increase since early January...

There is no clear catalyst for dollar strength towards the end of this week, but the pause in rotation from US to European equities and some caution ahead of the 2 April tariff event are probably...

Additional sanctions hitting Iranian oil exports are pushing oil prices higher Energy – US Tightens Sanctions on Iranian Oil Exports Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than...

The Fed revised its dot plot projections to two cuts in 2025, but guidance remains more hawkish than market pricing. We don’t expect Powell to get in the way of a dollar recovery if data allows...

Oil prices edged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 0.31% higher on the day. The gains were driven by a recovery in equity markets and a relatively supportive inventory report from the Energy...

As former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi once said: "In a dark room, you move with tiny steps. You don't run, but you do move." Recent events over the last few weeks have reminded us of...

Market pricing suggests some dovish tweak in the Fed communication today, but we think Chair Powell will want to see hard evidence of a slowdown and will remain cautious for now. The US dollar can...

Gold is one of the best-performing major commodities this year, up more than 14% year-to-date. President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been the key driver for gold so far in 2025. We see...