ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Additional sanctions hitting Iranian oil exports are pushing oil prices higher Energy – US Tightens Sanctions on Iranian Oil Exports Oil prices rallied yesterday with ICE Brent settling more than...

The Fed revised its dot plot projections to two cuts in 2025, but guidance remains more hawkish than market pricing. We don’t expect Powell to get in the way of a dollar recovery if data allows...

Oil prices edged higher yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 0.31% higher on the day. The gains were driven by a recovery in equity markets and a relatively supportive inventory report from the Energy...

As former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi once said: "In a dark room, you move with tiny steps. You don't run, but you do move." Recent events over the last few weeks have reminded us of...

Market pricing suggests some dovish tweak in the Fed communication today, but we think Chair Powell will want to see hard evidence of a slowdown and will remain cautious for now. The US dollar can...

Gold is one of the best-performing major commodities this year, up more than 14% year-to-date. President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been the key driver for gold so far in 2025. We see...

The week started with another US data disappointment, as softer-than-expected retail sales added to worries about a deteriorating consumer picture. Today, geopolitical developments are in focus as...

Tensions in the Middle East have resurfaced, supporting oil prices. The market is also watching closely the outcome of talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin Energy - Geopolitical Risks...

There are visible signs of disagreement at the Bank of England on the pace of rate cuts required this year. But with wage growth and inflation remaining sticky, we expect the Bank to keep rates on...

Risk assets are a little calmer at the start of a new week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has tried calming some nerves by calling equity corrections healthy. But a combination of US activity...

The big news over the last month has been European leaders embracing fiscal stimulus. The prospect of looser eurozone fiscal policy and relatively tighter ECB policy (we now think the terminal rate...

Oil prices came under greater pressure yesterday amid a broadening risk-off trend and bearish news from the International Energy Agency Energy – Surplus environment Oil prices couldn’t...

EUR/USD is drifting lower as the market mulls the whole host of inputs currently in play. The one-month EUR/USD risk reversal, marking the cost of a euro call option over an equivalent put option, is...

Despite a cooler-than-expected US core CPI print yesterday, the US dollar is recovering some ground. The focus now shifts to PPI figures today as well as the discussion within the Senate to approve a...

Oil prices bounced higher yesterday on a constructive weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration Energy – Kazakhstan Oil Production Surges Oil prices strengthened yesterday...

A weaker US dollar provided some support to the commodities complex yesterday. However, markets remain sensitive to external developments Energy – EIA Reduces Oil Surplus Estimates Despite the...