ING Economic and Financial Analysis

French politics is injecting uncertainty into eurozone bond markets, but the spread widening remains more confined to French bonds for now. Long-end yields globally have felt supply and fiscal...

Oil prices came under pressure as US secondary tariffs on India come into effect, taking the total levy to 50%.Energy – Secondary tariffs against India come into forceOil prices were unable to...

Eurozone optimism has pushed the Germany 2-Year yield to the brink of pre-’Liberation Day’ levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are...

Having enjoyed a brief session on Friday of unalloyed joy as Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, financial markets may now face some uncertainty on political developments in France...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole provided a boost to most risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex. Yet, uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal...

Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up,...

The US dollar is drifting higher ahead of a key speech from Fed Chair Powell today. Driving that has been some slightly better business confidence data, questioning whether the Fed needs to cut in...

Chair Powell does not have to pretend to maintain a degree of hawkishness as the recent data in fact supports such a stance. The next FOMC is still a month away; plenty of time to pivot. Good...

In September 2019, the system creaked as the Fed had gone too far with bank reserves reduction. We're facing a similar challenge in the coming months as the Treasury replenishes its cash buffer. We...

Oil prices are set to finish this week higher as hopes for an imminent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine fade. Energy Oil prices moved higher yesterday as the initial enthusiasm over progress...

The EU and the US have just released the so-called 'Framework Agreement', offering more binding details on the arrangement reached four weeks ago in Scotland This framework agreement on “Reciprocal,...

The small increase in the composite PMI from 50.9 to 51.1 indicates that the eurozone economy continues to weather global storms quite well. Improvements in new orders and increased hiring add to a...

The release of the July FOMC minutes failed to move the needle on the US dollar story. What is interesting is the continued strong performance of Chinese assets, with the benchmark CSI 300 equity...

The FOMC minutes seem to be from a different time, pre the payrolls revisions; but can still embolden Powell on Friday. Gilt yields came down on the day of hotter CPI numbers suggesting a possible...

In a quiet week for FX markets, the dovish rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand overnight shows the importance of spare capacity in the economy as the central bank looks through a short-term...

ICE has decided again not to include the EU bonds in its sovereign indices, sending EU speads wider. In the broader context EU bonds are still part of a considerable smaller AAA-universe since the...