ING Economic and Financial Analysis

US core inflation posted a fourth consecutive 0.3% print, showing that progress towards the Fed inflation goal has clearly stalled. Nonetheless, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation is doing a...

The global Crude Oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. This surplus should see prices trending lower next year. However, there are risks 2025 oil...

Gold has had a record-breaking rally this year, supported by the Fed’s easing cycle, central bank purchases and safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical and economic risks. We believe the...

The US dollar has come back bid this week. Any upside surprise to today’s US November core CPI number would trigger another leg higher in the dollar – as would only a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of...

We should see little action before a busier second half of the week in the US and eurozone. If anything, the dollar should see some support ahead of tomorrow’s inflation numbers. Inflation numbers in...

"Little reason to leave the US dollar now" After a brief sell-off on Friday’s US jobs report, the dollar has returned bid. Helping that trend is geopolitics (Korean markets remain unsettled) and a...

The week culminates in today’s November NFP jobs report. Given expectations of a bounce back after last month’s weather and strike-hit figure of +12k, the market now probably sees less than 200k as a...

A handful of OPEC+ members decided to extend supply cuts into next year and also slow the pace at which they will bring supply back onto the market. While this move reduces the scale of the surplus...

If US exceptionalism and the potential for a second Trump administration weren’t enough to hold dollars, geopolitics and events in South Korea yesterday only add to the argument. Expect the market to...

FX markets continue to see a strong dollar even though this week should really be about US data and prospects for Fed easing. The currencies of three of the five BRICS founding members are under...

A much busier week in terms of US data will have a major say in whether the Fed cuts rates by 25bp on 18 December. US data poses some downside risks to the US Dollar, but the continued and expanding...

OPEC+ meet this week to discuss output policy for 2025, which will be important for price direction. Meanwhile, European gas prices moved higher on Friday with concern growing over a...

ING’s Head of Markets, Chris Turner, on the FX market after a turbulent week for several currencies following Donald Trump’s social media posts about tariffs, notably on Mexico and...

The US market reopens post-Thanksgiving with limited activity expected. The DXY strengthened slightly, correcting Wednesday’s sell-off. The Brazilian real hit an all-time low due to disappointing...

As expected, Israel and Hezbollah announced a 60-day ceasefire agreement and plans to discuss a longer-lasting peace agreement. The oil market is assessing the new dynamics and how it impacts the...

The highlight of Wednesday's session will be the release of the US October core PCE deflator, expected at 0.3% MoM. Even though the market has largely moved on from the US inflation story, a sticky...