ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Are markets too confident in a September Fed rate cut? Yes. But are central banks too nervous about another inflation wave? Also, yes, argues James Smith. He’s got a bone to pick this week, as the...

A fifth straight decline in initial jobless claims places even more emphasis on Tuesday’s CPI data to vindicate markets' residual bets on a September Fed cut. The consensus view has now emerged: a...

Oil prices are under pressure, despite OPEC+ reportedly nearing the end of its supply hikes. President Trump's talk of a “major” Russia statement on Monday has the market on edge Energy – Oil Falls...

The US dollar downtrend is pausing for breath. Fresh updates on US tariff levels are having a diminishing marginal impact on FX markets, and instead, macro factors are making a comeback. Here, we...

Eurozone data remains volatile amid trade war developments, but the underlying trend is still sluggish. Uncertainty is slowing domestic demand, which contributes to our expectation of a further rate...

Growth challenges are mounting while tariffs will lift inflation, but stagflation fears are wide of the mark. The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until the end of the year, despite escalating...

Trump's 50% tariff announcement on Brazil, a net importer from the US, appears linked to charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, and is resulting in significant pressure on the BRL. But...

President Donald Trump last night announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, driving New York futures to a record high US copper futures hit a record high yesterday – surging as much as 17% – after...

Today’s June Fed minutes will answer this question. Unless something remarkable emerges, the tariff story itself seems unable to significantly steer the US dollar for now, as markets retain a...

Heading into Wednesday’s potential US tariff deadline, FX traders will remember that it was the Swiss franc that was the big winner at the height of April’s market unrest. Today, the Swiss franc...

Comex copper futures surged to a record after President Trump said he planned a 50% tariff on copper imports, more than the market expected Metals – Trump Says He Plans 50% Tariffs on Copper...

Financial markets have reacted to news of higher US tariffs in sanguine fashion. Equity markets have recovered most of their initial losses, bond markets have barely budged and in FX, Asian...

Oil prices managed to settle higher yesterday despite the announced supply increase from OPEC+ Energy – Oil Rallies Despite OPEC+ Supply Increase While prices initially slid yesterday following a...

FX markets are preparing for a noisy week that could upset the benign volatility conditions seen over the last two months, although the fallout should be nowhere near the levels seen in April. The US...

Oil prices are under pressure this morning after OPEC+ increased supply by more than expected for August Energy – OPEC+ Goes With a Larger Supply Hike ICE Brent is trading lower this morning after...

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day trade reprieve is ending. Tariff noise is back, but does it really matter? US inflation has stayed surprisingly benign and the economy is holding up, despite the...