ING Economic and Financial Analysis

There's now a much higher probability that the US Fed will start cutting interest rates soon. ING's James Knightley says our thinking has started to change US Interest Rate Cuts Could Come Sooner...

Following Friday's soft US jobs report, the US dollar looks to stay offered this week. The firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, after President Trump accused the agency of manipulating...

It’s been a big day in FX markets where a wholly weak US jobs report has pulled the rug from under Jerome Powell’s hawkish stoicism and stopped the US dollar’s rally in its tracks. It looks highly...

Oil prices are trading weaker this morning after OPEC+ agreed on another large supply hike for September Energy – OPEC+ Goes with Another Large Supply Hike for September There was little in the way...

Trade deals, tariff fireworks, data drama, this week has had it all. Here are four key takeaways from this whirlwind week – and what we’ll be watching as the story unfolds in the days to...

The UK jobs market is creaking, providing plenty of justification for a 25 basis point rate cut this month. But it’s a nuanced picture, which, set against sticky inflation data, suggests little...

Steady inflation confirms that the eurozone is in Lagarde’s “good place” at the moment. Expect inflation to remain around target for the months ahead The European Central Bank should savour the...

The US has announced new 'reciprocal' tariffs (Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand are notable targets) while keeping the base rate at 10%. The muted market impact signals lingering expectations of...

After an already eventful week, markets will have more to digest on Friday. The US payroll numbers will be the highlight, although the potential spillovers to other markets have lessened....

If the FX options market is any guide, and once this week's big event risks are out of the way, investors are pricing a quiet August for markets. Low levels of volatility inevitably draw focus to the...

The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2% in May, with the number of unemployed people trending down by 62,000 people. Even though economic growth slowed again in the second quarter and...

Despite two dissenting votes, the Fed delivered a broadly hawkish hold, with Chair Powell remaining firm on his inflation call and forcing markets to trim September cut bets. The US dollar’s rally...

Comex copper plunged by more than 19% in minutes after President Trump excluded refined metal from his planned import tariff. The 19% fall on Wednesday was the largest intraday fall on record. Prices...

Two FOMC members voted for a 25bp rate cut, having openly stated that they agreed with the President there was a case for lower borrowing costs. However, the rest of the committee are reluctant with...

The 0.1% growth compared to the first quarter shows resilience despite US trade volatility. While short-term risks to the outlook remain high, improvements in sentiment provide encouraging signs for...

Consensus expects zero GDP growth from the eurozone in the second quarter, but the outlook remains positive, supporting our bearish take on rates. The Fed will most likely hold today, which could...