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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock rebound fizzles after Trump restores Brazil, Argentina tariffs

Published 02/12/2019, 13:50
Updated 02/12/2019, 13:54
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stock rebound fizzles after Trump restores Brazil, Argentina tariffs
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* Share price recovery hit by latest Trump trade tweets

* Govt bond yields rise after surprise German SPD elections

* Oil prices climb before possible OPEC+ cuts

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Stock markets reversed earlier

gains on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would

restore tariffs on some imports from Brazil and Argentina,

overshadowing data showing that the Chinese and euro zone

economies were stabilising.

European stocks had initially rebounded towards four-year

highs, as decent manufacturing data in China and renewed

optimism over a trade deal between Washington and Beijing

eclipsed last week's jitters. The positive mood also encouraged

investors to dump government debt in the euro zone and the

United States.

Trump then accused Brazil and Argentina of a "massive

devaluation" of their currencies and said he would immediately

restore tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminium imports.

The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares in 47 countries, gave up its earlier gains but clung to

positive territory and remained near last week's highs.

In Europe, the Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX slipped after earlier

rising 0.3 percent. The German DAX .GDAXI succumbed to selling

pressure. French .FCHI and British .FTSE shares were also in

the red.

Wall Street futures, however, remained in positive territory

ESc1 .

Investors have been sticking with the broad view that a

further escalation in the trade war between China, the U.S. and

other countries can be avoided, even after last week's decision

by Trump to sign legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong,

which enraged China.

Stock markets headed back towards record highs in November

as investors bet the worse of the trade war had passed and a

fears of a recession receded.

Chinese data did much to help the initial mood on Monday.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

in November marked its fastest expansion since December 2016.

"What we had in China on the weekend with the two PMIs being

above expectation is clearly a good sign in terms of making the

global stabilisation scenario more credible," said Francois

Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime

Partners.

Another PMI survey published on Monday showed euro zone

manufacturing activity shrank for a 10th consecutive month in

November, but it also signalled that the worst may be over.

Savary cautioned that while we do have signs of "economic

stabilisation" and a decreased risk of deflation, "a lot of

positive news has been priced in".

GERMAN ELECTIONS

Some of the most striking moves in global markets on Monday

were in government bonds, where the strong economic numbers and

election of new political leaders in Germany prompted a selloff

in safe-haven government debt.

The surprise election of new leftist leaders to the Social

Democrats (SPD) threatened Germany's ruling coalition, sparking

a jump in German bond yields as markets bet it would ease the

path towards fiscal expansion. The 10-year German bond yield rose more than 7 basis points

to as strong as -0.273 percent DE10YT=RR , a three-week high.

U.S. Treasury yields were also notably higher, with the

10-year bond yield up by more than 7 basis points at a two-week

high US10YT=RR .

The buoyant mood among investors was also evident in the

U.S. dollar, which has tended to perform well on hopes for a

trade deal.

It rallied to a six-month high of 109.73 yen JPY=EBS , its

strongest against the safe-haven Japanese currency since May,

before settling at 109.54 after Trump's tariff announcement.

Currency markets were largely quiet elsewhere, with the euro

down marginally against the dollar at $1.1005 EUR=EBS .

Markets are now focused on the U.S. Institute for Supply

Management's November manufacturing survey, which is due at 1500

GMT, for a further gauge of the health of the U.S. economy,

followed later in the week by closely watched jobs data.

"The onus is now on the ISM data to see if there is a

rebound, and the odds are on a bit of rebound but not a strong

one," said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea

Asset Management.

Oil prices recovered after slumping on Friday on record high

U.S. crude production. Expectations that OPEC and its allies are

set to extend existing cuts in oil output when they meet this

week helped drive the rebound. Brent crude LCOc1 futures extended earlier gains to $61.99

a barrel, up 2.48 percent. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude

CLc1 gained 2.52 percent to $56.56 per barrel.

MSCI world stocks index https://tmsnrt.rs/2qVb6hu

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