GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, dollar climb before Powell's Jackson Hole speech

Published 23/08/2019, 09:51
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, dollar climb before Powell's Jackson Hole speech
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - World stock markets and the

dollar rose on Friday as investors looked to a speech by Federal

Reserve chair Jerome Powell for clarification on whether the

U.S. central bank remains on course to deliver another interest

rate cut in next month.

Suggesting markets remain broadly confident of further Fed

easing, European stocks rebounded from the previous day's falls,

with the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX index gaining as much

as half a percent in early deals. Britain's FTSE 100 index

.FTSE was up 0.64%. .EU

MSCI's All Country World Index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares across 47 countries, was up 0.1% and set to break a

three-week losing streak.

Earlier in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific

shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS edged 0.3% higher and was

up 1.0% for the week, on track to break a four-week losing

streak. Japan's benchmark Nikkei .N225 advanced 0.4% and

Australian stocks .AXJO added 0.3%.

The dollar rose 0.2% against a basket of peer currencies.

Powell is due to speak at 1400 GMT at a gathering of central

bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

While markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to follow up its

first rate cut in a decade with more stimulus at its meeting

next month, some policymakers are not keen.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented

against the decision to ease in July - for the first time since

the financial crisis - and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick

Harker, who said he "reluctantly" supported the cut, both said

the U.S. economy did not need more stimulus at this point.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said businesses had

become much more cautious due to surprises on trade policy and

he was "going to at least be open-minded about making some

adjustment" if he saw continued weakness.

That has made Powell's speech pivotal for markets as they

look for any clues on future policy direction.

"Judging by the minutes from the July meeting the central

bank seems content to sit on their hands, but it is worth

remembering the U.S.-China trade situation has intensified, and

so has the unrest in Hong Kong, and that might prompt Mr. Powell

to be a touch more dovish than he was in late July," said David

Madden, markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.

U.S. stock futures were up 0.35%, pointing to gains on Wall

Street later in the day. ESc1

In the U.S. bond market, the two-year/10-year yield curve

briefly moved back into inversion territory overnight, a shift

that also occurred last week and hit financial markets amid

worries that it presaged a sharp global downturn. US2US10=RR

"There's been no jaw-dropping news this week but we have had

incrementally less bond-friendly news - the FOMC minutes, the

euro area PMIs, and Fed speakers in recent days that give the

impression that July was an insurance rate cut," said John

Davies, G10 rates strategist at Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) Bank.

"This has dragged the market away from speculating about

25-50 basis points rate cut in September to a discussion on a 25

bps cut to will they cut rates, so a bit more uncertainty has

been injected into markets."

Markets are however still pricing in a 98.8% probability of

a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 18. IRPR

The euro eased marginally to $1.1073 EUR=D4 . A survey

showing a surprise uptick in euro zone business growth for

August was offset by trade war fears, knocking future

expectations to their weakest in over six years. The pound GBP=D4 fell half a percent to $1.2195, reversing

most of the gains made on Thursday after traders interpreted

encouraging comments on Brexit from German Chancellor Angela

Merkel to mean a solution to the Irish border problem could be

found before Britain leaves the EU on Oct. 31. GBP/

China's yuan recovered some ground after hitting an 11-1/2

year low.

Spot yuan CNY=CFXS slid to as low as 7.0992 per dollar,

its weakest since March 2008. China's central bank set the

midpoint rate at 7.0572, its weakest level in 11-1/2 years but

much stronger than traders had expected. Washington labelled China a currency manipulator this month

after a sharp slide in the yuan. Concern about China's economy

is growing because U.S. tariffs on roughly $150 billion of

Chinese goods will take effect from Sept. 1. Oil prices weakened, with both Brent crude and U.S. West

Texas Intermediate down 0.1%. O/R Brent crude LCOc1 traded

at $59.89 per barrel and WTI crude CLc1 at $55.31.

Gold eased and was set for its worst week in nearly five

months. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.2% at $1,495.60 an ounce.

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