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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks under pressure as bond markets ring recession alarms

Published 28/08/2019, 12:12
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks under pressure as bond markets ring recession alarms
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* MSCI world equity index falls 0.1%

* European stocks down 0.6%

* UK PM Johnson plans to cut parliamentary time before

Brexit

* Sterling falls 1%, UK stocks up 0.3%

* Gold, silver in demand; Japanese yen stands tall

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices thoughout, adds details on sterling, UK stocks)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - World stocks slipped on Wednesday

as a deepening inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve a day

earlier reignited worries over the possibility of recession,

sending investors towards perceived safe-haven assets from the

Japanese yen to gold.

The U.S. yield curve inverted on Tuesday to levels not seen

since 2007, stoking a sell-off on Wall Street. An inversion of

the yield curve - where yields on shorter-dated debt are above

those on longer-dated paper - has historically been a highly

accurate predictor of a U.S. recession.

MSCI's world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares in 47 countries, fell 0.1%, dragged down by European

shares. The broad Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX fell 0.6%, with

bourses in Paris .FCHI and Frankfurt .GDAXI tumbling 0.6%

and 0.7% respectively.

However, UK stocks bucked the trend .FTSE , turning

positive to gain 0.3% as sterling dived 1% on Prime Minister

Boris Johnson's move to restrict parliamentary time before

Britain's planned departure from the European Union.

Johnson will limit parliament's ability to derail his Brexit

plans by unveiling his new legislative agenda on Oct. 14, a

government source told Reuters, stoking fears of an economically

disruptive no-deal departure from the EU. The pound, already trading lower on the day, was last down

0.6% at $1.2210.

Still, Wall Street futures gauges NQcv1 EScv1 suggested

U.S. stocks would show more resilience, forecasting gains of

around 0.2%.

"It's become very difficult for investors to garner an idea

of where we go to next," said Michael Hewson, chief market

strategist at CMC Markets. "The weakness in bond yields and the

strength in havens speaks to an investor that is becoming

increasingly risk-averse."

The 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR had fallen on Tuesday

to around 6 basis points below the two-year yield US2YT=RR ,

with the 10-year yield close to three-year low touched on

Monday.

Longer-dated bond yields also fell. The U.S. 30-year

Treasury yield US30YT=RR slumped to a record low of 1.906%,

and was last down 6 basis points on the day.

Some investors said market fears of a looming recession,

would further support expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve

would cut interest rates further - something they warned is not

a foregone conclusion.

Federal funds futures FEDWATCH implied traders saw a 91%

chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. central bank

next month, and a 100 basis point cut within 2020.

"The market is pricing another 100 basis points cut from the

Fed by next year, but the Fed seems rather reticent to follow

where the market is indicating it should go," said Peter

Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC Capital

Markets.

The renewed fears of a global economic slowdown bolstered

demand for assets perceived as safe havens.

Gold XAU= turned positive after starting the day in the

red, and was last flat at $1,542.91. Silver XAG= gained 1.2%,

putting it on course for its fourth straight day of gains.

In currencies, the Japanese yen kept a grip on its recent

gains. The yen, seen as a safe haven in part because of Japan's

large trade surplus and a tendency for domestic investors to

repatriate money in times of market turbulence, traded at 105.78

per dollar JPY=EBS . It held its gains from the previous day,

when it advanced 0.35% to a 7-month peak.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a

basket of currencies, gained 0.1% to 98.094 .DXY . Currencies

that tend to perform well when investors buy into riskier

assets, such as the Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3

dollars, fell.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock

markets, please click on: LIVE/

U.S. Yield Curve http://tmsnrt.rs/2zUqXiW

World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

GBP moves https://tmsnrt.rs/2PlDRiw

EXPLAINER-Countdown to recession: What an inverted yield curve

means ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

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