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GLOBAL MARKETS-Trade war thaw and ECB stimulus hopes buoys stocks

Published 12/09/2019, 12:06
Updated 12/09/2019, 12:10
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Trade war thaw and ECB stimulus hopes buoys stocks
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* MSCI's world equity index touches highest since Aug. 1

* U.S. and China ease trade war tensions

* ECB to announce fresh stimulus measures at 1145 GMT

* Yuan rises to three-week high

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

(Updates prices; adds investor comment.)

By Tom Wilson

LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - World stocks climbed to their

highest in six weeks on Thursday as the European Central Bank

prepared to offer new stimulus measures and the United States

and China made mutual concessions in their trade dispute,

improving demand for riskier bets.

U.S. President Donald Trump delayed an increase in tariffs

on Chinese goods by two weeks, after China exempted some U.S.

drugs and other goods from tariffs. The two moves buoyed stock

markets from Asia to Europe and put pressure on safe assets like

the Japanese yen. MSCI's world equity index .MIWD00000PUS , which tracks

shares in 47 countries, rose 0.1% to its highest since Aug. 1.

It was on course for its seventh straight day of gains, its best

winning streak in since early June.

Europe's Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX climbed to its highest in

nearly seven weeks, then gave up the gains. Paris .FCHI and

London .FTSE markets also relinquished early gains, though

Frankfurt .GDAXI held onto a 0.2% advance. Wall Street futures

gauges ESc1 were up 0.1%.

Some analysts said investors were getting too eager for good

news on the U.S.-China trade war. The prospects of a quick

resolution were still remote, they warned.

"I don't think we're heading for a deal soon," said Neil

Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com. "The market is just

buying on any kind of positive news – it seems hungry for

anything. It's setting itself up for a bit of disappointment."

The ECB's move, due at 1145 GMT, also carries a risk of

overly optimistic market expectations, investors said.

Major central banks worldwide are loosening monetary policy,

inflation expectations are sliding and the powerhouse German

economy is at risk of recession. Consequently, ECB President

Mario Draghi has all but promised more support. But the central bank's exact moves are far from certain, and

any decision that underwhelms markets could push up borrowing

costs.

Among the likely measures are a cut in the ECB's record-low

minus 0.4% deposit rate, a multi-tier deposit rate, and new

guidance on rates that would tie any move to certain inflation

conditions.

A new round of bond buying, the bank's most potent weapon,

is also an option - but policymakers from Germany to France are

sceptical about that move.

"We could see some disappointment here. The challenge is

more about forward guidance and reassurance for the future,"

said Christophe Barraud, chief economist at Market Securities in

Paris.

"It would be surprising if the ECB launches a big stimulus

right now ahead of uncertainties such as hard Brexit and the

trade war."

After the ECB decision, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected

to cut rates next Wednesday and the Bank of Japan and Swiss

National Bank next Thursday also may ease.

BONDS CALM, YUAN RISES

Euro zone government bonds were steady in early trade, after

rising from record lows reached a week ago on doubts that the

ECB would resume asset purchases. "Whether the ECB cuts rates by 10 or 20 bps is neither here

or there," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at

Daiwa Capital Markets. "The big question is whether they restart

QE, and if they don't, we will see a further sell-off in bonds,

especially longer-dated ones."

The optimism over trade and the looming ECB decision were

felt in currency markets, too.

The euro EUR=EBS fell to a one-week low of $1.0983

overnight on expectations of ECB easing before steadying in

morning trade. It has shed 3.5% since June.

With risk-hungry investors emboldened, the Chinese yuan

CNH= gained 0.4% against the dollar, touching a three-week

high of 7.0855.

Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital

Markets, said he was surprised by the rebound, particularly in

the yuan pushing beyond 7.10 to the dollar.

"The bigger picture is one of a very tense geopolitical

environment that is unlikely to be rectified quickly," he said.

The Japanese yen, a safe haven for nervous investors, fell

to a six-week low against the dollar, and was last down 0.1% at

107.88.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell as a meeting of the OPEC+

alliance yielded no discussion about increasing supply cuts.

They focused instead on bringing Nigerian and Iraqi output down

to their agreed quotas.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell 69 cents, or 1.1%, to

$60.12 a barrel by 1055 GMT, heading for a third session of

losses.

For Reuters Live Markets blog on European and UK stock

markets, please click on: LIVE/

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